SunSirs: Recently, China Natural Rubber Market Fell from a High Level (March 18-26)

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the spot price of natural rubber in China has recently fallen from a high level. As of March 26, the spot rubber market in China was around 13,940 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.86% compared to March 19, which was around 14,500 RMB/ton.

Recently, the natural rubber market has fallen from a high level, with the Shanghai rubber 05 contract dropping from around 15,350 RMB/ton to around 14,400 RMB/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 14,400-14,500 RMB/ton, bulk at around 13,000-13,200 RMB/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 11,900-12,200 RMB/ton, and domestically produced latex bulk at around 11,700 RMB/ton.

Cost side: Currently, many raw material production areas in Thailand have stopped cutting, and these areas are about to enter a shutdown period. As of March 25th, the price of raw material adhesive in Thailand has risen to 79.5 Thai baht/kg, with a slight decrease in price; Vietnam's production areas are still in a period of no harvest; The domestic market is still in a period of cutting cessation. The market supply continues to decline, but the overall high prices of raw materials have fallen, providing weak support for the natural rubber market.

On the demand side: Downstream tire production is at a high level, with an increase in demand. As of March 21st, domestic tire enterprises have a production load of around 80% for semi steel tires; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region exceeds 70%; Overall, there is some support for natural rubber in terms of supply and demand, but currently the natural rubber market is still at a high level. Tire companies are resistant to high prices and are cautious in procurement, with a focus on just in need.

Inventory: As of March 22, the natural rubber inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange was 217,191 tons, a decrease of 220 tons; Futures inventory increased by 1,300 tons to 211,130. As of March 24, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao area was 668,000 tons, an increase of 11,800 tons or 1.80% compared to the previous period. Recently, there has been an increase in the arrival of natural rubber at ports, coupled with a slight decrease in the outbound rate, resulting in a continued slight increase in port inventories.

Market forecast: Currently, the supply side of Thailand's raw material production areas is about to stop cutting, but the domestic raw material production areas are growing well and are about to start cutting. It is expected that the market supply of raw materials may increase; At present, the operating rate of downstream tire factories on the demand side is high, and enterprises are actively scheduling production. However, the price of natural rubber is still high, and tire companies have a cautious purchasing mentality; In addition, there has been a slight increase in natural rubber port inventory. It is expected that the natural rubber spot market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

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