SunSirs: The First Rise in Retail Prices of Refined Oil Products in 2024 was Coming

The current domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on January 3, and the retail price of refined oil is about to increase. The retail price adjustment in 2024 will usher in the first increase, and the crude oil market trend will rise during the cycle, with a positive rate of change. The retail price of refined oil in 2024 will experience the "first increase".

Entering this pricing cycle, international oil prices have risen. As of the 2nd, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $70.38 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $75.89 per barrel. Firstly, the Husai armed forces continue to harass ships on the Red Sea route, affecting the transportation of ships on the Red Sea route, leading to further escalation of geopolitical tensions and an increase in oil prices. Secondly, the US inflation data is lower than expected, increasing market attention to the prospect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, boosting fuel demand expectations, and supporting international oil prices. Finally, the CPI showed that US commercial crude oil inventories were 43656.8 million barrels, a decrease of 6.91 million barrels from the previous week, and the decrease in US crude oil inventories correspondingly increased crude oil prices. Supported by favorable factors, international oil prices have risen in this cycle. As of the 3rd, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was 4.90%. It is expected that each ton of gasoline will increase by 200 RMB, and diesel will increase by 190 RMB. The discounted prices will be 89# 0.15 RMB per liter, 92# 0.16 RMB per liter, 95# 0.17 RMB per liter, and 0# 0.16 RMB per liter.

In terms of gasoline: Recently, the operating rate of Shandong refineries has slightly declined, with some refineries shutting down due to a shortage of raw materials. Overall, the operating rate of Shandong refineries under atmospheric and vacuum conditions has slightly decreased, with the operating rate dropping to around 64%; There has been little change in the operation of domestic main refineries, and the supply of refining in Shandong has slightly decreased, which has played a certain supporting role in prices. In addition, some merchants replenished their inventory before and after the New Year's holiday, which has slightly supported gasoline demand and led to a slight increase in gasoline market prices.

In terms of diesel: The supply of diesel has slightly declined, coupled with the rising cost of crude oil prices, which provides some positive support for diesel. However, with the impact of low temperature, rain and snow weather, the demand for diesel in the infrastructure industry has gradually weakened, and outdoor infrastructure and engineering construction have declined. Transportation has been hindered, and diesel demand is sluggish and sluggish. The diesel market is mainly volatile.

Looking at the future: Currently, there is still a long short game for crude oil, and the crude oil market is mainly characterized by range fluctuations in the short term. In terms of domestic supply, with the start of crude oil quotas in the later stage, Shandong refineries may slightly increase their production, but downstream demand is mainly in demand, lacking substantial benefits. In the short term, the price of gasoline and diesel is mainly fluctuating at a low level.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.