SunSirs: China Natural Rubber Market Rose first and then Fell in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the market trend of natural rubber has risen first and then declined this month. The spot rubber market price in China's natural rubber market was around 12,540 RMB/ton on the first day, and around 12,890 RMB/ton on the 31st, with a monthly increase of 2.79%.

Influencing factors:

1. Rainfall in domestic and foreign production areas has gradually eased, and inventory at Qingdao Port continues to decline

On the supply side, it is still in the peak season of rubber cutting, and the production area is affected by more periodic rainfall. Rainfall in Thailand, Vietnam and other production areas has slightly eased, and the overall production of raw materials is hindered; The rainfall in Hainan production area has eased, and the glue production is gradually normal; The weather in the Yunnan production area is normal, and the production of raw materials is normal. Recently, the production of raw materials has gradually recovered, and the cost support for natural rubber is limited. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong. The Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to reduce inventory and inventory continues to decline, which has a certain boosting effect on the Tianjiao market.

2. High operating rate of tire enterprises

On the demand side, the overall operating rate of rubber tire enterprises has slightly increased; The operating rate of semi steel tire enterprises has slightly increased, and overall shipments are good. Currently, most enterprises still have a shortage of snow tires. As enterprises gradually schedule production, the shortage phenomenon will be alleviated; The operating rate of all steel tires has remained basically stable, prices have been stable, and production has been scheduled. Recently, inventory has increased, and currently the main focus is on destocking.

Regarding the future market, the recent rainfall in domestic and foreign raw material production areas has eased, and the output of raw materials continues to rise, and the purchase price may decline; At present, the export situation of tire enterprises is good, and there is a certain demand and positive support for the natural rubber market in the short term; In addition, with the recent decline in futures trading, the price of natural rubber is weak. It is expected that the natural rubber market will be dominated by fluctuations and consolidation in the near future.

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