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SunSirs: Crude Oil Prices Rose to Near Two-week Highs, and the Decline in Polyester Filament Had Slowed Down

October 20 2023 14:37:42     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

Recently, the decline in the domestic polyester filament market had slowed down, and there was a strong sentiment of wait-and-see and maintaining stability. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of October 19th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions quoted polyester POY (150D/48F) at 7,700-8,000 RMB/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 9,150-9,300 RMB/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 8,200-8,500 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

Recently, international crude oil prices experienced significant fluctuations, but the overall market showed an upward trend. On October 19th, international crude oil futures continued to rise, with the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States at 88.37 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.10 US dollars or 1.3%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 92.38 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.0 US dollars or 0.9%. The weekly inventory report released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell significantly last week, with a more than expected decrease. Coupled with tensions in the Middle East, this had brought a bullish trend to the crude oil market, and prices had reached a new high in nearly two weeks.

On October 18th, the main PTA supplier's 3.3 million ton PTA plant was restarted, and the expectation of sufficient supply in the market increased. Coupled with insufficient downstream polyester buying, demand support was insufficient. Although the international crude oil fluctuated at high levels and still provided support for PTA costs, the overall boosting effect was limited. As of October 19th, the average market price in the East China region was 5,856 RMB/ton.

The downstream textile market still faced a shortage of large orders, and most textile companies had reported a longer recovery time for the final payment, resulting in increased inventory pressure on finished products. Therefore, they are cautious in starting and producing. As of October 19th, the operating rate of weaving machines in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was around 65%. In the traditional market, although there was an increase in the variety and styles listed by fabric operators in China Light Textile City in September, transactions were still relatively limited. In recent days, market transactions remained relatively flat, and sales hotspots were still relatively few.

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that crude oil prices on the cost side remained strong, but the "Silver Ten" had already passed, and the demand side was expected to weaken seasonally. The decrease in terminal orders and the accumulation of finished product inventory will bring negative feedback pressure, and it is expected that polyester filament prices will still weaken.

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