SunSirs: Nickel Prices Fluctuated and Fell This Week (September 18-22)

Price trend

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by SunSirs, nickel prices had fluctuated and fallen this week. As of September 22, the spot nickel quotation was 160,133.33 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.83% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 20.38%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have decreased in 7 weeks and increased in 5 weeks. Recently, nickel prices declined weakly.

Analysis review

On the macro level, the Federal Reserve suspended interest rate hikes as scheduled but hinted at keeping the target range of the federal funds rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5%. After the announcement of the resolution, US stocks plummeted, and the US dollar index rose above 105 again, putting pressure on the commodity market.

In terms of supply: The supply of pure nickel was at its peak, and there was a significant increase in the supply of pure nickel, nickel iron, and nickel intermediate products in the later stage, resulting in a decrease in nickel iron prices. LME's nickel destocking had slowed down and the inventory accumulated, and Indonesia had decided not to issue new mining quotas within the year. Nickel ore supply tightened, and prices showed strong performance.

In terms of demand: The pressure on stainless steel inventory was showing, but maintaining high production schedules had some support for the demand for pure nickel. The Double Festival was approaching, and after the nickel price falls, it attracted bargain-hunting reserves to enter the market.

Market outlook

In summary, new production capacity for pure nickel had been gradually put into operation, and the demand side remained stable. LME inventory also started to increase at a low level. However, due to resource constraints at the mining end, nickel ore prices were prone to rise but difficult to fall. MHP and high nickel prices were firm, while nickel sulfate prices were rising, elevating the focus of nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to maintain a broad fluctuation trend.

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