SunSirs: The Positive Rate of Change is expanding, and the Retail Price of Refined Oil is facing the Seventh Increase in 2023

The current round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on July 26. The zero selling price of refined oil has been raised again, and the retail price adjustment in 2023 has gone through "six rises, six falls, and two stalls". During the cycle, the crude oil market price continues to rise, and the rate of change is expanding. The retail price of refined oil in this round will face "three consecutive increases".

Entering this pricing cycle, the international crude oil change rate remains positive. As of July 25th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $79.63 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $83.25 per barrel. The positive factors supporting the international oil market during this round of price adjustment cycle, on the one hand, the expectation of supply tightening continues to ferment. Saudi Arabia and Russia have announced new production reduction measures, and the Saudi Ministry of Energy has announced that it will extend the policy of reducing production by an additional 1 million barrels per day in July until August; The Russian Ministry of Energy also confirmed that the oil export volume will be reduced by 500,000 barrels per day in August. In addition, the production of Shale oil in the United States is in a bottleneck. The tightening of crude oil supply has become a major positive for the international oil market. On the other hand, there is significant support during the peak summer oil consumption season, with North America experiencing a peak in summer oil consumption. In addition, with increasing demand from China, international oil market prices continue to rise. Finally, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is nearing the end, and the market has generally digested the expectations of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this week. The news is positive, and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data report on Wednesday showed that crude oil inventories declined. Multiple positive factors support the continuous rise of international oil prices. As of the 26th, the change rate of crude oil varieties was 5.55% on the 10th working day. It is expected that there will be an increase of 275 RMB per ton of gasoline and 260 RMB per ton of diesel, with a price increase of 89# 0.20 RMB, 92# 0.21 RMB, 95# 0.23 RMB, and 0# 0.22 RMB.

In terms of gasoline: Driven by the increase in crude oil prices, the trend of gasoline prices has increased. The operating rate of Shandong Refinery has slightly increased, and the supply has increased. The operating rate of Shandong Refinery is around 64.5%. With the emergence of hot weather and an increase in summer outings, the usage rate of private car air conditioning has increased, and the demand for gasoline has been guaranteed. In addition, with strong cost support, some intermediaries have entered the market and actively purchased, leading to an upward trend in the gasoline market.

In terms of diesel: Shandong local refining enterprises have slightly increased their production, with a relatively loose supply side. In addition, supported by the positive news of crude oil prices, the diesel market price has significantly increased. The recent significant increase in diesel prices is primarily due to the strong support of crude oil prices, which has led to significant cost benefits. Secondly, due to the construction of warehouses and procurement by intermediaries, there has been a significant increase in orders for diesel, resulting in an increase in diesel prices. Finally, the southern rainy season is coming to an end, and the fishing season in the south is also coming to an end, indicating a positive expectation of demand; The increase in high temperature and rainy weather in the north still imposes certain restrictions on the construction of outdoor industries, mines, and infrastructure. However, the positive factors are clearly supported, and diesel prices have increased significantly.

It is expected that the supply shortage will continue to rise in the short term, as supply restrictions from Saudi Arabia and Russia will continue until August, which will help the oil market maintain a strong trend. The rebound in demand will also bring some benefits to the oil market. In terms of gasoline, the impact of high temperature weather in summer has led to an increase in the use of car air conditioning. Recently, there have been more domestic tourists, and the gasoline market price still has support; The construction and procurement of diesel by intermediaries may come to an end, and coupled with the recent significant increase in overdraft, it is expected that the diesel market will continue to face significant upward pressure.

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