SunSirs: The Market of SBR fell slightly in stages in China

In the near future (7.15-7.25), the market of SBR dropped slightly in stages. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 25, the price of SBR in East China market was 11,750 RMB/ton, down 0.70% from 11,833 RMB/ton in the middle of the month. The ex factory price of SBR was stable during the period. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 25, the ex factory price of Qilu styrene butadiene 1502 of Sinopec North China Sales Company was 11,800 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price of raw material butadiene and styrene continued to rise, and the cost of SBR continued to support; The start of downstream tires fluctuated slightly, and the demand for SBR just needed support. The basic aspects of SBR industry chain are running steadily and smoothly. As of December 25, the mainstream offer of SBR 1502 in the domestic market was 11,70012,100 RMB/ton.

Recently (7.15-7.25), the prices of raw materials butadiene and styrene continue to rise, and the cost of SBR continues to be supported. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of July 25th, the price of butadiene was at 7,143 RMB/ton, an increase of 5.35% from 6,781 RMB/ton in the middle of the month; As of July 25th, the price of styrene was 7,966 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.35% from 7,708 RMB/ton in the middle of the month.

Recently (7.15-7.25), the overall operation of domestic SBR plant was stable, but the load of Shenhua Chemical SBR plant was reduced from Line 3 to Line 2 on the 25th; In addition, the Lanhua Butadiene Plant is scheduled to restart by the end of July; Yibang Butadiene Plant plans to restart operation in August; From a comprehensive perspective, the operation of SBR plant has declined slightly from now on, but it is expected to increase in the later stage.

Recently (7.15-7.25), the natural rubber market declined slightly, and the impact on SBR was weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of July 25th, the price of natural rubber was 11,870 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.30% compared to 12,150 RMB/ton in the middle of the month.

In the recent period (7.15-7.25), the tire operating rate has fluctuated slightly, with half steel tire operating slightly higher than the previous period, and all steel tire operating slightly lower than the previous period. The demand for rubber rigid needs is supported steadily. It is understood that as of mid July 2023, the operating load of rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province is 6.3% for all steel tires and around 7.3% for half steel tires.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the cost support of SBR is stronger, and downstream demand needs support, but the supply pressure of SBR is expected to increase in the later period; It is expected that the price of SBR will be firm in the short term, and the market may be suppressed after the restart of the plant in the later period. At that time, if the cost and demand support are insufficient, the market of SBR may decline.

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