SunSirs: The Trend of Refined Oil Market is divided in the First Half of 2023, and the Expectation for the Second Half is Optimistic (II)

Prospects for the domestic refined oil market in the second half of 2023:

Cost: OPEC+ output regulation policy of oil producing countries will continue to play a role. Russia's crude oil export volume is rigid, while Shale oil in the United States remains stable. Affected by the busy travel season in North America in the third quarter, China is expected to introduce more stimulus policies, and the oil market may rise in a restorative way. The macroeconomic environment in the second half of the year may maintain a suppression of risky assets. On the one hand, the Federal Reserve still has plans to continue raising interest rates. On the other hand, with high inflation in Europe and the ECB's interest rate hike process not yet over, the risk of global economic recession has not been lifted, which has a certain inhibitory effect on the crude oil market. The long short resonance in the fourth quarter market may return to neutrality, mainly due to the risk of demand expectations. The high interest rate environment brought by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike may cause the US economy to enter a recession more quickly.

Supply and demand side: In the second half of the year, there has been little change in the supply of domestic refined oil products. The domestic market is constantly recovering, and export policies are becoming more flexible. There is still 11 million tons of export space for gasoline and diesel in the second half of the year, which still plays a positive and supportive role in the market. In terms of gasoline, with the support of the summer effect in July and August and the peak travel season of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten", the demand for gasoline will continue to improve. In the second half of the year, with the increase of residents' travel, gasoline demand will receive some support. In November and December, with the weakening of the holiday effect and colder weather, gasoline demand will decline. Domestic gasoline prices may rise first and then decrease in the second half of the year. In terms of diesel, the high temperature and rainy weather in July and August in China continued to suppress diesel demand, and diesel prices remained low and weak. With the inclusion of diesel in hazardous chemicals management policies becoming increasingly standardized, there is still a possibility of an increase in domestic diesel prices after a brief downturn, as the golden nine silver ten peak season begins. In addition, the acceleration of work by industrial and mining units, infrastructure oil consuming units, and the tightening of local resources caused by the replacement of negative resources in winter at the end of the year can stimulate good development and increase diesel demand. Therefore, it is expected that the trend of domestic diesel prices in the second half of the year will first be suppressed and then rise.

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