SunSirs: Differentiation of China Domestic Gasoline and Diesel Market Trends in June

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of 92# gasoline in China on June 26th was 8,468.4 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.74% compared to the price on the first day; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 6,851 RMB/ton, a 4.08% decrease from the previous day's price. In June, crude oil fluctuated in a range, and demand performance was uneven, leading to a differentiated trend in domestic gasoline and diesel.

The crude oil market price range fluctuated in June. As of June 26th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.37 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.35 per barrel. On the one hand, from the perspective of the global economic situation, the Federal Reserve's announcement of interest rate hikes has not yet ended and will not cut rates. Macroeconomic pressure is increasing, and the oil market is under pressure. On the other hand, OPEC+ has announced two production cuts, coupled with the increase in China's refining and processing volume, which has boosted international oil prices. The demand during the summer oil peak season has supported, and the international oil price market has been boosted. Overall, the crude oil market is still a long short game, with international oil prices fluctuating within the range. The linkage between the refined oil market and crude oil prices is relatively strong, and cost remains an important influencing factor.

In June, the operating load of refineries nationwide was around 71.5%; Shandong independent refineries have been operating at around 62%, with the main refineries operating at high loads and supply levels consistently high. Overall, there has been little change in the supply of refined oil resources, and the domestic production and supply of refined oil are relatively stable. In May 2023, the domestic gasoline production was 13.405 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.51%; The production of diesel is 18.58 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 26.09%, and the production of gasoline and diesel is relatively stable. The cumulative domestic gasoline production from January to May was 64.658 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.29%; The cumulative production of diesel is 89.307 million tons, an increase of 20.3% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the domestic production of refined oil increased year-on-year.

In terms of gasoline, with the appearance of hot weather, the use rate of private car air conditioners has increased. In addition, the Dragon Boat Festival in June has formed a certain support for gasoline consumption, and the demand for gasoline is guaranteed. In addition, some businesses have replenished their stocks after the holiday, so the price of gasoline market has risen.

In terms of diesel, many parts of the country are experiencing an increase in hot weather, with limited construction of outdoor industries, mines, and infrastructure. In addition, due to the impact of the rainy season in the south, agricultural oil consumption is gradually ending, and diesel demand is weakening, leading to a decline in the diesel market trend. The domestic finished oil market is bearish in terms of social inventory, with a pessimistic attitude in the middle and lower reaches, poor consumption, and rising inventory. Overall, gasoline has strong resistance to decline, while the diesel market has declined.

The global oil market is still a long short game, and the news of production cuts will boost the crude oil market. However, the global economy still faces risks, interest rate hikes still exist, and the oil market still faces challenges. In the short term, the crude oil market will maintain range fluctuations. In terms of domestic supply, the overall operating rate of the main refineries and local refineries has not fluctuated much, and the supply of finished oil is relatively stable. In terms of demand, as the temperature rises, the use of oil for automotive air conditioning increases, and gasoline consumption is supported. In addition, downstream users' demand for restocking may increase after the holiday, and it is expected that the gasoline market will rise slightly; Due to the impact of high temperatures and heavy rain, the operating rate of outdoor operations may continue to decrease in diesel fuel, resulting in low demand.

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