Recently, the domestic sulfur market has shown significant regional differentiation: domestic refinery prices have generally risen, while port spot prices have continued to fall. This divergent pattern reflects the complex interplay of supply and demand, cost transmission, and industry sentiment in the current market.

I. Sulfur Market: Divergence between domestic and international markets, leading to differing expectations.

Regarding domestically produced sulfur, prices at refineries in major production areas across the country have been raised. As of January 21st, SunSirs' benchmark price for sulfur was 4,083.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 11.54% compared to the beginning of the month (3,661.00 RMB/ton). Although there were sporadic price reductions in Shandong and Northwest China, the overall trend remained upward, while prices in Northeast China remained stable. The main reasons for the refineries' price increases are:

Due to maintenance work and load adjustments in some regions, the market supply was relatively tight, and refinery inventories remained low, supporting a firm pricing stance. Downstream companies still had some demand for replenishing raw material inventories, but after the continuous price increases in the previous period, market sentiment for further price hikes had cooled. It is expected that the market will remain stable with slight fluctuations in the next trading day, and there is insufficient momentum for further price increases.

The port sulfur market continued its weak trend. The winning bid price for sulfur from major refineries was 4,175 RMB/ton (-30 RMB/ton), which became a key signal of weakening market sentiment. Coupled with continued price pressure from buyers' inquiries, some traders became more flexible and proactively lowered prices to facilitate transactions, leading to a further downward adjustment in port prices. In the short term, without substantial demand support, port sulfur prices are likely to face further downward pressure.

II. Downstream industry chain: Inefficient cost transmission and weak demand were limiting upward price movements.

Sulfuric Acid Market

The overall trend of the sulfuric acid market remained stable, with only a narrow adjustment of 10 RMB/ton observed in the Shandong region. As of January 21, the impact of sulfur market price fluctuations on the sulfuric acid industry was not yet fully reflected, and sulfuric acid producers in various regions still primarily based their pricing on the supply and demand fundamentals of their respective regions. It is expected that the sulfuric acid market will continue to maintain a stable overall trend with minor adjustments in some areas in the short term.

Ammonium phosphate market

Ammonium biphosphate: Supported by existing orders and high production costs, manufacturers were maintaining firm prices. However, downstream compound fertilizer companies were cautious in their purchasing, only buying to meet immediate needs, resulting in weak market activity for new orders. The short-term trend is expected to be one of "high-level consolidation." As of January 21st, SunSirs' benchmark price for ammonium biphosphate was 3,866.67 RMB/ton, a 0.35% increase compared to the beginning of the month (3,853.33 RMB/ton).

Diammonium phosphate: Although sulfur prices have pulled back, they remained at a high level overall, and companies continued to face cost pressures. However, winter stockpiling was progressing slowly, and downstream traders were purchasing on an as-needed basis. Market activity was sluggish, and in the short term, prices are expected to remain stable with some consolidation, without significant fluctuations.

Titanium dioxide market

High raw material prices were driving manufacturers' willingness to raise prices. As of January 21st, SunSirs' benchmark price for titanium dioxide was 13,900.00 RMB/ton, a 1.16% increase compared to the beginning of the month (13,740.00 RMB/ton). However, demand from downstream industries such as coatings and plastics remained weak, and new order volumes were not meeting expectations. The market was in a state of tension between "cost-driven" price increases and "demand-suppressed" sales. Many in the industry were observing the pricing strategies of leading companies, and the market is expected to remain relatively stable in the short term, awaiting clearer guidance.

In summary, the sulfur market exhibited a structural characteristic of "strong domestic market, weak port market," reflecting a mismatch between domestic and international resources, regional supply and demand, and market sentiment. The weakening of port prices had, to some extent, eased cost pressures on downstream industries, but the slow recovery of end-user demand constrained price transmission throughout the entire industrial chain.

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