According to China Chemical Information Weekly, in 2025, driven by multiple factors including growth stabilization policies, cultivation of new productive forces, and accelerated domestic substitution, the chemical industry departed from its previous pattern of uniform price fluctuations. Sector differentiation emerged as the most prominent feature throughout the year. Data monitored by SunSirs indicates that among 314 major chemical products, 71 saw month-on-month price increases. The top three gainers—sulfur, sulfuric acid, and bromine—rose by 116.50%, 111.86%, and 64.84%, respectively. Meanwhile, 236 products saw month-on-month price declines, with R22, calcium hydroxide, and n-propanol leading the declines at 49.22%, 42.86%, and 40.23% respectively.
Styrene: Industry Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place as Price Center Shifts Downward
In 2025, the styrene industry chain entered a period of profound adjustment, with the sector experiencing an average annual decline of 25%. From upstream benzene to downstream styrene-butadiene rubber, the entire chain faced a supply-loose pattern. Downward price pressure propagated throughout the industry chain from top to bottom, putting pressure on profit margins across the board. Amid sustained capacity expansion and slowing terminal demand growth, the price center across all segments systematically shifted downward. The industry entered a phase of supply-demand rebalancing and exploration of a new operating range. The competitive focus is shifting from scale expansion to cost control, operational efficiency, and demand alignment, marking a new stage of competition centered on structural adjustment and quality enhancement within existing capacity.
Benzene: 27.17% Decline
As the upstream source of the chain, the benzene market in 2025 exhibited a pattern of “high opening followed by a downward trend and deep adjustment.” Taking the Shanghai market as an example, prices fluctuated downward from RMB6,700 per ton at the beginning of the year, hitting a low range of RMB5,300-5,400 per ton in late October, with an annual price spread exceeding 20%.
The core driver of market weakness was supply-demand imbalance. On the supply side, multiple large-scale integrated refining and petrochemical projects came online, fueling rapid growth in petroleum benzene capacity—a byproduct—at a 11.46% compound annual growth rate. Total annual capacity is projected to reach 27 million tons in 2025, with output potentially exceeding 21.9 million tons. On the demand side, while key downstream sectors like styrene and caprolactam maintained growth, their expansion failed to match the upstream supply surge. Combined with weak terminal consumption momentum, this left the market unable to effectively absorb the new resources. Consequently, bargaining power shifted toward the demand side.
Looking ahead, the benzene industry will remain in a pattern of “high capacity, high inventory, weak demand” for some time, with price levels under pressure. Any temporary rebound would depend on large-scale concentrated maintenance or unexpectedly sharp declines in imports, while a trend reversal would require the elimination of outdated capacity or breakthrough growth in downstream sectors.
Styrene: 20.19% decline
The styrene market experienced pronounced seasonal fluctuations in 2025, broadly divided into four phases: “stable in Q1, volatile in Q2, declining in Q3, and fluctuating in Q4.” Annual prices retreated significantly from their peak. Data shows styrene prices fell from 8,470 yuan at the beginning of the year to RM6,760 by year-end, marking a 20.19% decline.
Specifically, the styrene market operated steadily in Q1 2025 under balanced cost and supply-demand dynamics, with prices fluctuating slightly around RMB8,000. In Q2, heightened price volatility emerged due to shifts in the macroeconomic and trade environment alongside market sentiment. Entering the third quarter, the average price spread between benzene and styrene reached RMB1,317. Styrene producers maintained high operating rates, with weekly output consistently exceeding 370,000 tons from mid-July to early September—sustained above the annual average. This heightened supply pressure pushed prices into a one-way downward trend, with spot prices falling from their second-quarter peak to 6,810 yuan by the end of the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, weakened crude oil and commodity futures, coupled with downward pressure from upstream feedstock benzene, pushed the market to a stage low. Spot prices hit a five-year low on November 11 before stabilizing and rebounding, entering a low-range oscillation pattern.
Looking ahead, sustained supply abundance will remain the long-term backdrop for the styrene industry. Price movements are expected to primarily follow a “range-bound oscillation” pattern, with fluctuations mainly influenced by periodic supply adjustments (such as changes in plant operating rates) and macroeconomic sentiment.
Styrene-butadiene rubber: Down 22.32%
In 2025, the styrene-butadiene rubber market exhibited a weak trend characterized by “volatile declines with lackluster rebounds,” closing the year at RMB11,575 per ton. Compared to the year's opening price of RMB14,900, this represented a 22.32% decline. Although temporary rebounds occurred during the period due to factors like macroeconomic policy expectations and raw material price fluctuations, the peaks of these rebounds progressively diminished, highlighting the market's underlying weakness.
The price weakness stemmed from dual pressures: upstream cost support collapsed as butadiene—the primary raw material—plummeted from RMB13,150 to around RMB7,000 due to new capacity releases from Wanhua Chemical and ExxonMobil, eroding SRB’s cost floor; Downstream demand remains persistently weak. The tire industry faces high inventory pressures and a complex overseas trade environment, maintaining rigid, on-demand procurement of raw materials and struggling to provide sustained demand traction. The market as a whole has entered a cycle of “falling costs, stable profits, increasing supply, and weak demand.”
Looking ahead, the styrene-butadiene rubber market may persist in a “stuck between a rock and a hard place” scenario. Price fluctuations will primarily be driven by cost changes and macroeconomic sentiment. A sustained upward trend will require either substantial inventory drawdowns in the downstream tire sector or the introduction of robust terminal stimulus policies.
General-Purpose Plastics: Across-the-Board Pressure, Deep Adjustment
By 2025, China's general-purpose plastics market concluded its earlier high-level operation, with the industry entering a phase of deep adjustment. Against the backdrop of continuously released new capacity and sluggish terminal demand growth, structural supply-demand imbalance became the core contradiction suppressing prices throughout the year. According to Business Monitor data, the general-purpose plastics sector saw an average annual decline of 21.54%. Notably, Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene (ABS), Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE), and Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) recorded significant annual declines of 30.31%, 28.15%, and 20.38% respectively. The sector exhibited pronounced characteristics of “price declines and intensified competition.”
ABS: 30.31% Decline
In 2025, the ABS market experienced a fluctuating downward trend. According to Business Society data, by the end of December 2025, the domestic average transaction price for ABS stood at RMB8,250, down RMB3,587.5 from the beginning of the year, representing an annual decline of 30.31%.
The annual trend can be divided into phases: Prices remained elevated between 11,500 and RMB12,500 early in the year, supported by restocking and rising raw material costs. Post-Spring Festival, demand recovery fell short of expectations, causing prices to retreat. Although brief rebounds occurred mid-year, sustained supply pressure pushed prices into a downward trajectory starting in the second half, with mid-to-low-end grades briefly breaching the 8,000 yuan threshold.
The primary driver of the market downturn was sustained supply expansion. With new facilities such as Shandong Yulong Petrochemical and Jilin Petrochemical coming online, China's total ABS production capacity exceeded 11 million tons, marking a growth of over 25%. According to data from Longzhong Information, ABS output is projected to reach 6.9158 million tons in 2025, a 26% increase from the previous year. However, weak domestic demand has struggled to absorb the rapidly expanding supply, leading to rising inventories at manufacturers, increased shipment pressure, and intensified low-price competition. This has made it difficult to reverse the weak market trend throughout the year.
LLDPE: 28.15% Decline
In 2025, the average annual price of LLDPE in the East China market is projected to be approximately RMB7,501, a 10.93% decrease from the previous year, with price fluctuations ranging between 6,350 and RM8,950. The 2025 trend unfolded in three phases: January to May: Prices declined from the year-opening high of RMB8,950 to RMB7,430 under downward pressure. June to September: Prices fluctuated within a narrow range. October to December: Prices dropped significantly to the annual low of RMB6,350, driven by the convergence of peak supply and off-season demand.
The core driver behind the price decline was sustained supply growth outpacing demand. New LLDPE capacity additions reached 2.4 million tons in 2025. Although mid-year maintenance seasons and external environmental changes provided temporary support, downstream demand growth consistently lagged behind supply expansion. Particularly in the fourth quarter, supply peaked while demand entered its traditional off-season, placing significant pressure on the market and resulting in an annual decline of nearly 30%.
LDPE: 20.38% Decline
In 2025, the LDPE market maintained an overall downward trend. Business Society data shows the price started the year at ¥10,550 and ended at ¥8,400, marking an annual decline of 20.38%. Jinlianchuang's monitoring of the North China LDPE market indicates that prices weakened from the high of RMB10,550 at the beginning of the year. A brief rebound occurred between April and June due to plant maintenance, but it lacked sustainability. The market entered a one-sided decline in the second half of the year, with the price index falling by 14% in the third quarter. Although a minor technical rebound occurred at year-end following the oversold conditions, it failed to reverse the overall weakness for the year.
Looking ahead to 2026, China's general-purpose plastics industry is expected to enter its second round of capacity expansion. Although the pace of expansion may shift from “rapid” to “steady,” the market conditions of ample supply and insufficient demand are unlikely to fundamentally reverse in the short term. Prices are likely to remain generally within a relatively low range. Future industry growth will increasingly rely on structural upgrades. Demand for high-performance, differentiated modified plastics in sectors like new energy vehicles, premium packaging, and consumer electronics is poised to become a key driver for the industry's transition toward high-end and specialized products.
2025 Chemical Market Stabilizes with Diverse Trends
In 2025, China's chemical market exhibited pronounced structural characteristics amid a low-growth cycle, characterized by more declines than increases. Driven by multiple factors—including growth-stabilizing policies, demand from new energy and new materials sectors, and accelerated domestic substitution—the market moved beyond homogeneous fluctuations, with products showing deep divergence in performance. Overall, the industry completed bottoming out amid market forces and demonstrated a clear upward rebound trend.
Inorganic Products Surge Strongly Benefiting from policy support and emerging industry demand, inorganic chemical products emerged as the market highlight in 2025, with most entering an upward trajectory. According to Business Monitor data, among the 314 key chemical products tracked in 2025, 22.6% experienced price increases, predominantly inorganic products. Top gainers included sulfur (116.50%), sulfuric acid (111.86%), bromine (64.84%), and lithium carbonate (industrial grade, 53.18%). These are core raw materials for agriculture, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and new energy sectors. Their rapid price recovery and sustained strength directly stem from national policy support for related fields and robust demand from promising emerging industries downstream.
Organic raw materials show signs of bottoming out, while traditional sectors face pressure and transformation. In contrast, the organic chemical raw materials market remains under significant pressure, with 75.2% of products experiencing declines. However, the pace of decline has generally slowed, and a bottoming-out trend is becoming increasingly clear. Products with the largest declines, such as refrigerant R22 (-49.22%), n-Propanol (-40.23%), and Dichloromethane (-39.05%) are predominantly traditional organic chemical raw materials. Their declines stem from two primary factors: first, structural demand contraction due to environmental restrictions and substitution policies affecting products like R22; second, oversupply resulting from weak traditional downstream demand and homogenized competition within the industry. This divergence starkly highlights the urgency of industrial upgrading and environmental transformation.
The market has stabilized overall, with structural opportunities emerging. Notably, products with annual price fluctuations around 5% accounted for 36.6% of the total, indicating that prices for a large number of chemical products stabilized after policy stimulus in Q4 2025. The market has largely exited the deep decline phase, with the foundation for recovery solidifying.
Looking ahead, the chemical industry's recovery will exhibit distinct structural characteristics. Traditional sectors like titanium dioxide, pesticides, and chemical fibers are poised for cyclical rebounds amid improving demand. Meanwhile, emerging chemical materials—including electronic chemicals, high-end ceramic materials, and high-performance fluorine materials—will continue benefiting from industrial upgrading and domestic substitution trends. Their market potential is expected to expand further, emerging as new growth drivers for the industry. (Yifeng)
Lithium Battery Sector: Supply-Demand Synergy Drives Price Strength
In 2025, the lithium battery supply chain delivered standout performance, emerging as one of the strongest-performing segments within chemical-related sectors. According to Business Monitor data, the lithium battery sector recorded an average annual price increase of 78.8%. Among these, lithium hydroxide and industrial-grade lithium carbonate—closely linked to the chemical industry—saw annual increases of 59.11% and 53.18%, respectively. This price surge was primarily driven by the “supply-demand resonance” formed by recovering downstream demand and contracting upstream supply.
Lithium Hydroxide: 59.11% Increase
In 2025, lithium hydroxide prices followed an overall trajectory of “initial stability, followed by decline and then recovery.” Business Monitor data shows prices rose from 64,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 101,830 yuan per ton by year-end, marking a 59.11% increase.
Data indicates that in the first two months of 2025, the lithium hydroxide spot market remained relatively inactive with stable pricing, followed by a brief post-Chinese New Year surge. In early April, influenced by multiple factors including reduced costs and insufficient demand, the price center of lithium hydroxide declined until early July. Starting in August, driven by the sustained upward trend in prices of upstream lithium ore and related products like lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide prices followed suit. Entering the fourth quarter, fueled by the continued rise in lithium carbonate prices and the arrival of peak demand season, tightening market supply drove the price center of lithium hydroxide to continuously climb.
Specifically, in the first half of 2025, influenced by sluggish demand, high inventory levels, and weakening prices for lithium ore and lithium carbonate, suppliers' resolve to maintain prices weakened, leading to downward pressure on the market. In the second half, demand rebounded beyond expectations, boosting corporate restocking enthusiasm. This coincided with a recovery in lithium ore and lithium carbonate prices, while some companies switching production to lithium carbonate created supply tightness. With upstream firms adopting a “production based on sales” approach to collectively support prices, the market entered a sustained upward trend.
Looking ahead to 2026, supply growth will depend on increased smelting capacity, with expansions by leading companies alleviating some supply pressures. Strong demand support remains, driven by the continued development of long-range new energy vehicles where ternary materials retain significant importance. Additionally, semi-solid battery technology will boost demand for high-nickel ternary materials, providing sustained incremental growth for the lithium hydroxide market. Prices are expected to maintain a relatively firm trend.
Industrial-Grade Lithium Carbonate: 53.18% Increase
In 2025, industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices exhibited a V-shaped reversal, declining initially before rebounding. Business Society data shows prices rose from RMB76,400 at year-start to RMB117,030 by year-end, marking a 53.18% increase. According to information, pre-Chinese New Year inventory stockpiling drove prices upward in early 2025. From February to June, prices fell to ¥58,000 due to declining ore costs and weak demand. Starting in July, supply contraction expectations emerged due to mining rights rectification in Jiangxi and production halts at CATL's Jianxiawo mine, coupled with a rebound in energy storage demand. Prices peaked at RMB84,000. in August before retreating. In September, significant growth in downstream seasonal inventory stockpiling demand created a scenario of robust supply and demand. During the fourth quarter, downstream demand began to materialize, driving prices upward again and breaking through RMB124,000 by year-end.
Industrial-grade lithium carbonate pricing is primarily driven by supply-demand dynamics. In the first half, mismatched capacity expansion and demand growth led to inventory buildup and price pressure. The second half saw explosive energy storage demand, increased battery production schedules, and supply contraction expectations from mine shutdowns, propelling rapid price increases. Policy-wise, industry “anti-internal competition” measures bolstered market confidence in long-term healthy development, providing further price support.
Looking ahead to 2026, the lithium carbonate market may gradually transition from a “resource-dominated” cycle to a “demand-driven” cycle. Short-term price fluctuations will depend on winter production changes at salt lakes, the implementation of battery manufacturers' production plans, and the actual realization of downstream demand.
Sulfur Chemicals: Robust Demand, Strong Uptrend
In 2025, the sulfur chemicals sector experienced a sustained upward trend throughout the year, driven by both traditional chemical demand and explosive growth in the new energy sector, emerging as one of the most prominent segments in the chemical market.
The sulfur chemicals industry is undergoing profound structural transformation: shifting from historical dominance by agrochemical demand to a new phase driven by both “traditional chemicals” and “new energy.” Robust demand from the new energy sector, coupled with structural adjustments in the global supply chain, has collectively propelled the sulfur chemicals segment beyond its traditional cyclical patterns. Industry prosperity and profitability now significantly outpace most chemical sub-sectors.
Sulfur: 116.5% increase
As the core raw material at the very top of the industrial chain, the sulfur market demonstrated exceptional strength in 2025. According to SunSirs statistics, its price surged from RMB1,691 at the beginning of the year to RMB3,661 by year-end, marking a substantial 116.5% annual increase and serving as the key engine driving the entire sector upward.
The primary drivers of sulfur's price surge were the simultaneous occurrence of “supply contraction” and “structural demand expansion.” Tight supply across major global production regions, coupled with explosive growth in new energy batteries and high-end materials—beyond stable demand from traditional fertilizers—injected unprecedented new demand. This fundamentally altered sulfur's pricing logic, which had historically relied on a single planting cycle. The annual price trajectory unfolded in three distinct phases: accumulation, consolidation, and acceleration. Phase One occurred in Q1 2025, where demand for spring planting fertilizer stockpiling built momentum in the first two months. Overseas prices surged continuously in March, propelling domestic prices to RMB2,587. Phase Two spanned Q2 and Q3, characterized by robust bottom support and deepening expectations of supply-demand tightness. The third phase occurred in the fourth quarter, where expanding overseas supply gaps drove prices to an annual peak of RMB4,261.
Looking ahead to 2026, the tight supply-demand balance in the global sulfur market is expected to persist. Data indicates the global sulfur supply-demand gap will widen further to 5.13 million tons in 2026, providing sustained fundamental support for prices. This trend has already materialized at the start of the year: on January 8, 2026, port granular sulfur prices rebounded to RMB4,195, a 5% increase from December 31, 2025, setting a strong foundation for the year's market trajectory.
Sulfuric Acid: 111.86% increase
In 2025, the sulfuric acid market reached its peak, characterized by a significant price trajectory of “starting low at the beginning of the year and surging sharply throughout the year.” Driven by policy regulation, rising raw material costs, and upgraded downstream demand, its price climbed from RMB442.5 at the start of the year to RMB937.5 by year-end, marking an annual increase of 111.86% and effectively doubling in price.
Industrial policy guidance emerged as a pivotal force in optimizing the sulfuric acid industry landscape. On July 1, 2025, the new national standard for Industrial Sulfuric Acid took effect, establishing technical boundaries for high-quality industry development. Concurrently, the full implementation of the “Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)” explicitly classified sulfur-based acid production facilities below 300,000 tons/year (excluding electronic-grade sulfuric acid) and pyrite-based acid production facilities below 200,000 tons/year as restricted categories, while facilities below 100,000 tons/year were designated for elimination. This policy accelerated the exit of outdated production capacity from the market.
Against this backdrop, China's sulfuric acid capacity structure continues to optimize, exhibiting trends toward large-scale and integrated development. Statistics indicate that 10.6 million tons/year of new capacity will be added by 2025, with an actual net increase of 9.1 million tons/year after deducting relocated capacity. From a capacity structure perspective, new additions are primarily concentrated in sulfuric acid from sulfur and smelting acid sectors, with sulfuric acid from sulfur accounting for 5.6 million tons/year of new capacity, representing 61.54% of the total. This shift has deeply tied sulfuric acid market prices to raw material sulfur costs, with upward pressure from raw material prices continuously propagating downstream, becoming a key driver of sulfuric acid price increases.
Supply-demand mismatch is another core factor driving sulfuric acid price growth. On the supply side, while domestic sulfuric acid output will see significant growth in 2025, supply expansion is constrained by tight raw material supplies like sulfur and intensive plant maintenance schedules. On the demand side, a pattern of “stable fundamentals in traditional sectors and accelerated growth in emerging sectors” emerged. Beyond the fertilizer industry, demand in traditional chemical sectors like titanium dioxide and caprolactam continued to recover. Coupled with explosive demand from the new energy sector, this injected robust growth momentum into the sulfuric acid market. With the rapid increase in the penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the power and energy storage sectors, demand for sulfuric acid has experienced explosive growth, becoming the primary driver of increased sulfuric acid consumption.
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