The recent sustained rise in international crude oil prices stems primarily from Ukraine's ongoing attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Ukraine's precision strikes have already damaged 20% of Russia's refining capacity and halted fuel exports. Compounded by intensifying Iran-Israel conflict in the Middle East and heightened navigation risks in the Strait of Hormuz, market concerns over supply disruptions continue to drive up risk premiums. However, this short-term surge faces fundamental constraints: While OPEC+ has suspended production increases for Q1 2026, global supply remains ample. Non-OPEC+ nations will contribute an additional 1.2 million barrels per day, and U.S. shale oil production retains flexibility. Meanwhile, global crude demand growth stands at just 0.8%. With China's transportation fuel consumption peaking due to new energy substitution and U.S. demand stagnating, the oversupply pattern persists. Overall, while short-term geopolitical tensions drive impulsive price spikes, long-term pressures from supply-demand imbalances, renewable energy substitution, and producer nations' price war constraints limit sustained upward momentum.
Amid escalating tensions in Venezuela and heightened Middle East geopolitical risks, consecutive gains in international crude prices have narrowed the negative crude oil change rate for domestic refined product pricing adjustments, providing temporary market support. According to Jinlianchuang calculations, as of the fourth working day on January 12, the average price of the benchmark crude oil blend stood at $59.5 per barrel, with a change rate of -0.28%. This corresponds to a proposed reduction of RMB35 per ton in domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices. Under the “ten-working-day” principle, the adjustment window for this round closes at 24:00 on January 20. Uncertainties persist in the international crude oil market, and the final adjustment outcome will depend on future international oil price trends. The outcome of this round of adjustments remains unclear and warrants close monitoring.
Recently, the domestic gasoline and diesel markets have shown significant divergence, with prices moving in opposite directions and a persistently subdued buying and selling atmosphere. Specifically, gasoline prices have shown a slight upward trend. Despite being in the traditional off-season, gasoline demand is supported by the inelastic consumption of private vehicles for daily commuting. Some restocking demand exists, providing a basis for price increases. Major suppliers have accordingly raised prices slightly, though the magnitude remains relatively moderate due to overall weak consumption. In stark contrast, the diesel market exhibits a weak pattern, with prices continuing a slight downward trend. Demand remained persistently sluggish. With northern regions entering deep winter, outdoor projects like mining and infrastructure construction gradually halted. The rigid demand support from southern construction projects rushing to meet deadlines proved limited, significantly weakening the traditional peak season effect. On the supply side, domestic refinery operating rates remained high, ensuring ample diesel supply. The fundamental imbalance of oversupply further constrained upward price momentum. Even with cost support from international crude oil prices, it proved difficult to reverse the diesel market's weak trend. Recent sales by major distributors have been lackluster, with market participants maintaining a cautious wait-and-see attitude and trading activity remaining subdued. On one hand, the change rate remains negative, maintaining expectations for a retail price reduction in this round. On the other hand, the persistent weakness in diesel demand coupled with the sluggish recovery in gasoline demand has led downstream players to purchase only as needed, resulting in very few large-scale transactions. While major players and local refiners have introduced flexible transaction incentives to boost shipments, these measures have failed to fundamentally resolve the market dilemma caused by weak demand.
Looking ahead, international crude oil futures will continue their range-bound volatility, primarily driven by the dual forces of geopolitical risks and oversupply. Limited upside potential for oil prices makes it difficult to break through the upper boundary of the trading range. This uncertainty also clouds the outlook for China's retail price adjustment this round. As mid-January approaches, sales pressure on domestic major players will gradually intensify. The supply-demand imbalance complicates refinery destocking efforts, further exacerbating the shipping pressure on major players. Domestic gasoline and diesel markets will persist in a divergent pattern of “strong gasoline, weak diesel”: Gasoline prices remain relatively firm, supported by resilient essential demand and cost foundations. On one hand, the approaching Spring Festival boosts short-distance travel frequency, marginally improving seasonal demand. On the other hand, the “reducing oil, increasing chemical” transformation among refineries slows gasoline supply growth. Additionally, the opening of export arbitrage windows has diverted some resources overseas, alleviating domestic supply pressure and strengthening the major players' willingness to maintain prices. Meanwhile, diesel faces sustained downward pressure from multiple bearish factors. Refinery diesel output remains relatively ample, and the oversupply situation leaves prices lacking upward momentum. Some major players and independent refiners may continue offering small discounts to boost shipments. Overall, short-term volatility in international oil prices is unlikely to change, and the domestic refined oil price adjustment game will persist. Under the sales pressure faced by major players, the market's buying and selling atmosphere is unlikely to see substantial improvement.
As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on January 13th, the benchmark price of gasoline according to SunSirs was 7116.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.02% compared to the beginning of the month (7114.60 RMB/ton).
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