According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market was weak and fluctuated in May. From May 1 to 30, the price of MTBE fell from 5122 RMB/ton to 5042 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 1.56% during the period, a maximum fluctuation of 5.76%, and a year-on-year price drop of 26.39%.

In early May, the market fell significantly during the May Day holiday. Due to the decline in crude oil during the holiday, weak gasoline, and poor logistics and transportation, prices fell significantly. After the holiday, downstream companies replenished their stocks at low prices, and the decline slowed down. However, the market still faces resistance under the suppression of weak resource supply, and the overall operation trend remains weak.

In mid-month, the MTBE market gradually stabilized and rebounded. The most direct factor was the good trend of crude oil. Supported by favorable factors such as rising crude oil and gasoline, manufacturers were enthusiastic about pushing up prices. In addition, Dechen Energy, Shandong Yuhuang, and Huayi Chemical successively stopped production. As more and more factories stopped production, the supply of MTBE resources dropped sharply, and export negotiations were also relatively active. Supported by multiple favorable factors, the MTBE market gradually stopped falling and rose.

In late May, the MTBE market rose narrowly. At present, export order negotiations are relatively active, which provides favorable support for the mentality of the industry. In addition, the supply of resources is relatively small, and there is a demand for replenishment at the terminal, so manufacturers have a strong intention to support prices.

On the cost side, the overall international crude oil price in May showed a downward trend, and the average price also fell significantly compared with April. In the first half of the month, the United States planned to reach a new tariff agreement with more countries, and the market's concerns about the risk of trade disputes were reduced. Combined with the US plan to replenish strategic reserves, international oil prices rose. In the middle of the month, the market expected that the United States and Iran might reach an agreement on the nuclear issue, and the IEA believed that the supply would be slightly abundant, and international oil prices fell. After that, the nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran still had differences, and market concerns resurfaced. In addition, the market's expectations for demand prospects have improved, and international oil prices have rebounded. In the second half of the month, the market generally believed that OPEC+ would maintain a large increase in production in July, and was worried about the risk of supply growth, and international oil prices fell.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline terminal demand, the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and wheat harvest both supported terminal demand, the pace of mid- and downstream merchants entering the market to purchase accelerated, and the enthusiasm of refineries to push prices increased, and the market trading atmosphere was mild. MTBE demand is affected by favorable factors.

On the supply side, Ningxia Baofeng, Dongfang Hongye, Lushenfa and other manufacturers have plans to start work, and resource supply is expected to increase. In the short term, the domestic MTBE supply side is affected by unfavorable factors.

As of May 30, the ex-factory price of MTBE of some production enterprises is as follows:

As of the close of May 29, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market increased by US$8.51/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at US$670.97-672.97/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market was $5/ton lower than the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $765.74-766.24/ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market was $1.42/ton higher than the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $679-679.35/ton (191.72-191.82 cents/gallon).

Forecast for the future market, supply will increase while demand will be limited. Under the game of supply and demand, MTBE analysts of SunSirs believe that the domestic MTBE market will fluctuate in a narrow range.

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