In October, the market of BR was weak and declined. According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the price of BR was 12,210 RMB/ ton as of October 30, down 6.22% from 13,020 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the month. Although the downstream commencement in peak season is not as good as that in previous years, it has slightly increased compared with the early stage, which has a certain need for support for BR. In addition, at the beginning of the month, the raw material price rose significantly, which promoted the rise of BR on the cost side; In the middle of the month, some enterprises started to shut down their BR plants and reduce the load, reducing the pressure on the supply side of BR, and supporting the BR market; At the end of the month, the price of raw materials fell sharply, and the rise of BR was limited by the drag of cost.
Supply side: the construction of BR in October was still at a high level. Although Haopu and Jinzhou Petrochemical shut down within a month, some enterprises started to restart and started at a high level, and the pressure on the supply side of BR remained unchanged. According to SunSirs, Yantai Haopu 100,000 t/a BR plant started at half load in the first half of this month and stopped for maintenance on the 19th; Jinzhou Stone 30,000 t/a BR plant will be shut down from the middle of October; Taixiang Yubu 72,000 t/a BR unit restarted at the beginning of the month to normal operation; High load operation of Daqing, Sichuan and Yanshan High Shun Ding units. Under the pressure of supply side, BR is weak.
Cost: butadiene prices fell sharply in October, and the cost was not supported by BR. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of October 31, the price of butadiene was 7,603 RMB/ ton, down 8.43% from 8,303 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the month.
In October, the natural rubber market went down all the way, and the substitution advantage of BR was no longer, which had a negative impact on BR. As of October 31, the price was 11,170 RMB/ ton, down 9.26% from 12,310 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the month.
Demand side: The commencement of tires in major downstream consumer industries in October was slightly lower than that in September. According to SunSirs, in mid October, the commencement of all steel tires in Shandong was around 5.2%, and the commencement of semi steel tires was 6.5% (the commencement load in September was 5.9%, and 6.3% respectively), which had weak support for styrene butadiene rubber.
Future market forecast: according to the analysts of SunSirs, the supply of BR was still loose in October. At the end of this month, the 100,000 t/a BR plant of Shandong Yihua had been put into trial operation. In November, there will be a total of 150,000 t/a production capacity of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Transchem. Later, the pressure on BR continues to increase. In addition, the cost side is lower and the demand side is weak. It is expected that BR will continue to be weak in November.
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