Price data
According to the latest monitoring data of SunSirs, as of August 31, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic geo refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8,760.00 RMB/ ton, up 7.00% from 8,186.67 RMB/ ton at the beginning of this month. Geo refined hydrogenated naphtha fell in the first half of this month and rose sharply in the second half.
As of August 31, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 8,520577.50 RMB/ ton, up 5.54% from 8,127.50 RMB/ ton at the beginning of this month. The local refining straight run naphtha fell in the first half of the month and rose sharply in the second half of the month.
On August 31, the naphtha commodity index was 108.11, up 2.05 points from yesterday, down 11.12% from 121.64 points (March 10, 2022), the highest point in the cycle, and up 155.94% from 42.24 points, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
Analysis of influencing factors
Product: the price of local refined naphtha rebounded after falling in August. At present, the mainstream price of local refined hydrogenated naphtha is about 8,700-8,800 RMB/ ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 8,500-8,600 RMB/ ton. In August, the international crude oil fluctuated downward, the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the demand for naphtha terminal olefins and aromatics was weak. At the end of the month, boosted by the gasoline and diesel oil market, the inventory of local refining enterprises was low, refineries actively pushed up, and the naphtha market price continued to rise. As of the week of August 24, Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 2.476 million barrels, reaching a seven week high of 21.088 million barrels, Singapore's light distillate oil inventory increased by 650,000 barrels, reaching a two-week high of 17.349 million barrels, and Singapore's medium distillate oil inventory decreased by 571,000 barrels to an 11 week low of 7.231 million barrels.
Upstream: in August, the trend of international crude oil prices declined, and the decline of crude oil prices was mainly due to the large decline in the middle and early August. On the one hand, the pessimistic view of the recent economic recession dominated the market, and the economic data were generally weak, which once again triggered the market's concern about the global economic recession. In addition, the market was waiting for the results of the negotiations on the resumption of the Iranian nuclear agreement, and the supply tension was expected to ease, which made the international oil price under pressure. Finally, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), within six months after the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran is expected to increase its additional capacity by about 1.3 million barrels per day, which is also a reversal of the market's view on the supply tightening expectation and a decline in the trend of international oil prices. The international oil price rebounded in late August. On one hand, the US inventory data supported it. In addition, on Thursday, the economic data released by the U.S. Department of labor showed strong performance, and the demand for refined oil was still strong, diluting the worries about the slowdown in fuel demand caused by the risk of economic recession.
Downstream: in August, toluene fell first and then rose. On August 1, the price of toluene was 7,650 RMB/ ton, and on August 29, the price was 7,680 RMB/ ton, an increase of 0.39% over the beginning of the month. In August, mixed xylene fell violently. On August 1, the price of mixed xylene was 8,120 RMB/ ton, and on August 29, it was 7,980 RMB/ ton, down 1.72% from the beginning of the month. In August, the price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable. By the end of the month, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9,000 RMB/ ton, which was the same as the price of 9,000 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the month.
Market forecast
According to SunSirs energy analysts, the international crude oil price fluctuated downward in August, the naphtha cost support was limited, a small amount of ethylene and reforming demand were released, and the terminal demand was not significantly favorable. However, at the end of the month, boosted by the gasoline and diesel market, the inventories of local refining enterprises were low, the refineries actively pushed up, the naphtha market price continued to rise, and the merchants were cautious in chasing up. It is expected that the local refining naphtha will continue to rise in China in the near future.
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.