Price trend

Before the Spring Festival, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market experienced a brief period of strength at the beginning of the month, followed by a period of quiet trading and stable prices. Post-Spring Festival market trends will largely depend on the pace of resumption of work and production in downstream industries.

According to data from the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, as of February 11, the average price of domestic industrial-grade dimethyl carbonate was 3,800 RMB/ton. With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, trading slowed down, entering a stable state of "high price but no market".

Post-Spring Festival Market Forecast

Supply: In early February, some production facilities underwent maintenance shutdowns, leading to a temporary tightening of spot prices. After the holiday, these facilities resumed production en masse, and pre-holiday inventory buildup needs to be digested; anticipated new capacity additions are limiting medium-term upside potential.

Demand: Before the Spring Festival, downstream industries stocked up to meet immediate needs, which supported prices. After the holiday, electrolyte/PC production will resume in late February and return to normal in early March; procurement is mainly small orders for immediate needs, with a wait-and-see attitude prevailing.

Costs: Prices of key raw materials propylene oxide and methanol declined in early February, weakening the upward pressure on costs. After the holiday, the methanol/PO ratio fluctuates at low levels, making it difficult to provide strong upward momentum.

After the holiday, supply is expected to recover faster than demand. The pre-holiday price support effect has faded, market trading is sluggish, and manufacturers are offering discounts to reduce inventory. Prices are expected to decline slightly. However, as downstream industries gradually resume work and demand recovers, prices are expected to stabilize, showing an overall trend of initial weakness followed by stabilization and narrow fluctuations, with little chance of a significant increase.

Upside risks: Raw material price rebound, stronger-than-expected electrolyte demand, unexpected plant maintenance

Downside risks: New capacity coming online ahead of schedule, slower-than-expected downstream resumption of work, manufacturers concentrating on price cuts to reduce inventory

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