2025 Maleic Anhydride Market Review

According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system: In 2025, the price of maleic anhydride in China fluctuated downwards, with the average market price starting at 6,520 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year and ending at 5,112.50 RMB/ton at the end of the year, representing an annual decrease of 21.59%. The highest point of the year was 6,925 RMB/ton on April 28th, and the lowest point was 5,125 RMB/ton on December 18th, with a maximum annual fluctuation of 25.99%. The domestic maleic anhydride market experienced a significant decline in 2025.

According to data from SunSirs' monthly candlestick chart for the maleic anhydride market in 2025, the market experienced more declines than increases, with upward trends in 3 months and downward trends in 9 months. The highest increase was in March, at 3.19%, and the largest decrease was in July, at 6.01%.

First half of the year: After a brief surge, prices fell back under pressure.

From the beginning of the year to early May: The market continued the recovery trend from the end of 2024. Coupled with the increase in operating rates of downstream industries such as unsaturated resins and coatings after the Spring Festival, the price of maleic anhydride fluctuated upwards from 6,520 RMB/ton to a year-to-date high of 6,925 RMB/ton. From May to June: With the release of new production capacity, market supply pressure became prominent, and coupled with insufficient downstream demand, prices quickly fell back to 6,330 RMB/ton.

Second half of the year: Supply-demand imbalance, accelerating downward trend

July to the end of the year: The price of maleic anhydride entered a continuous downward trend. On the one hand, several domestic maleic anhydride plants started production, increasing the industry's capacity utilization rate to over 75%, resulting in a continuous oversupply in the market. On the other hand, the downstream unsaturated resin industry was affected by the sluggish real estate market and shrinking export orders, with operating rates remaining at around 50%, leading to weak demand support. The price continuously declined from 6,237.5 RMB/ton to 5,112.5 RMB/ton, with a cumulative drop of over 18% in the second half of the year.

Maleic anhydride market forecast for 2026

Cost side:

Raw material n-butane: In 2025, the n-butane market experienced volatile downward trends. The average market price was 5,180 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year and 4,470 RMB/ton at the end of the year, representing an annual decrease of 13.71%. The n-butane market was mainly affected by significant fluctuations in international crude oil prices. In addition, the domestic naphtha market in 2025 saw an initial increase followed by a decrease, with a decline of 9.35%, providing limited cost support for the n-butane market.

Supply side: In 2025, China's effective maleic anhydride production capacity reached 1.92 million tons/year, with actual production of approximately 1.685 million tons. The operating rate remained at a high level of 87.8%, reflecting a tight supply-demand balance in the industry. In 2025, the structure of China's maleic anhydride production capacity underwent significant changes. The n-butane oxidation process accounted for 76.3% of production, a significant increase from 58.1% in 2020, marking a technological upgrade in the industry under energy efficiency and environmental constraints. In contrast, the benzene oxidation process capacity was reduced to 237,000 tons/year, accounting for only 17.9%.

Demand Side: China's apparent consumption of maleic anhydride was approximately 861,000 tons in 2025, a 6.3% increase from 810,000 tons in 2024. In 2025, unsaturated polyester resin (UPR) remained the largest consumption sector for maleic anhydride, accounting for approximately 48% of total consumption, but its growth rate slowed to 5.2%. BDO accounted for 22.3%, with a high growth rate of 14.7%, driven by the expansion of BDO production in Ningdong, Yulin, and other regions.

The unsaturated resin industry remains one of the largest demand sectors for maleic anhydride, accounting for nearly 50% of the market. In 2025, the supply of unsaturated polyester resins (UPR) remained in surplus, with most manufacturers maintaining low operating rates. The overall market price of unsaturated resins trended downwards in 2025. In 2026, downstream demand is expected to maintain structural growth, with wind power, rail transit, and new energy vehicles becoming new growth drivers. The annual growth rate of high-performance vinyl ester resins used in wind turbine blades is expected to exceed 12%. Orders from traditional downstream industries such as shipbuilding and traditional automobile manufacturing are expected to continue to contract. SMC materials account for over 30% of shipbuilding materials, and the industry downturn has directly led to a sharp decrease in procurement volume.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2025, national real estate development investment totaled 8,278.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.2% compared to the previous year; of which, residential investment was 6,351.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.3%. In 2025, the floor area under construction by real estate development enterprises was 6,598.9 million square meters, a decrease of 10.0% compared to the previous year. Of this, the residential construction area was 4,601.23 million square meters, a decrease of 10.3%. The newly started construction area was 587.7 million square meters, a decrease of 20.4%. Of this, the newly started residential construction area was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The completed construction area was 603.48 million square meters, a decrease of 18.1%. Of this, the completed residential construction area was 428.3 million square meters, a decrease of 20.2%. The continuous and significant decline in real estate investment and the serious shortage of new construction projects have led to a continued sharp decline in glass demand from the real estate sector, and the demand from traditional end-use industries for unsaturated resins has increased only marginally.

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million units respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 10.4% and 9.4%. Of these, new energy vehicles accounted for 16.626 million units in production and 16.49 million units in sales, representing year-on-year increases of 29% and 28.2% respectively. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 47.9% of total new car sales. With the continuous expansion of the new energy vehicle market, the demand for unsaturated resins in the automotive sector has increased.

According to data from SunSirs, the domestic BDO market in 2025 experienced an initial decline followed by a rebound, and then a sustained downward trend, remaining generally weak throughout the year. New production capacity in the BDO industry continued to be released, while downstream demand failed to keep pace, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance. Intense market competition led to sustained downward pressure on prices. The industry's overcapacity situation continued to solidify, with domestic BDO capacity reaching 6.05 million tons/year by the end of 2025 (including facilities under construction), and annual production of approximately 2.58 million tons. The overall industry operating rate remained around 50%. Operating rates showed significant divergence among companies; integrated enterprises in Northwest China, leveraging their raw material cost advantages, achieved operating rates of 70%-80%, while smaller and medium-sized enterprises lacking cost advantages had operating rates of less than 30%, with some facilities even remaining shut down for extended periods.

Market outlook

The market price of maleic anhydride in 2026 is expected to fluctuate between 4,800 and 6,800 RMB/ton, and the price trend will be influenced by the following factors:

Post-holiday period: The real direction of the market will be determined after the Spring Festival. Raw materials: The price trends of n-butane and benzene will directly affect the production cost of maleic anhydride.

Supply side: The pace of new capacity releases will affect the market supply and demand balance.

Demand side: Changes in demand from downstream PBAT and UPR industries will directly affect the price of maleic anhydride.

Policy side: Environmental protection policies and carbon emission reduction requirements will increase production costs, providing support for prices.

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