The current thermal coal market exhibits typical structural differentiation characteristics. On the one hand, the seasonal demand for heating and the scarcity of resources support the price of high-quality coal; On the other hand, high inventory and weak demand are suppressing the low calorie coal market. On a regional level, a pattern of "stable north and strong south" has emerged, with northern ports stabilizing and southern ports strengthening. This article will comprehensively analyze the prices, supply and demand, external environment, and future trends of the thermal coal market based on the latest data and industry trends. Market price:

1. Classification of calorific value, with different trends

High calorie high-quality coal (5,500K): Supported by the rigid demand for winter heating and the scarcity of low sulfur resources in the market, the price has shown a slight upward trend, with a recent increase of 5-10 RMB/ton. The low sulfur characteristic gives it a premium advantage in the context of increasingly stringent environmental requirements.

Zhongka Coal (5,000K): The price performance is the most stable. It mainly relies on the long-term agreement monthly price adjustment mechanism to support the bottom, and the spot price fluctuates narrowly in the range of 590-605 RMB/ton, which is basically the same as the previous period, reflecting the role of policy in stabilizing prices.

Low calorie coal (4,500K and below): Due to weak terminal demand (especially in the non electricity industry), as well as continued stockpiling in ports and society, there is significant market sales pressure and prices remain weak, with a downward trend of 5-15 RMB/ton, becoming the main factor dragging down market sentiment.

2. Regional pattern: stable in the north and strong in the south

From the perspective of regional price differences, the current market presents distinct regional characteristics:

Northern ports (such as Qin, Tang, Cang, etc.): The overall price of thermal power coal remains stable, and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, with transactions mainly driven by rigid demand.

Jiangnei and southern ports: The price of coal of the same specification has generally increased by around 10 RMB/ton. This is mainly due to the relatively concentrated demand for heating and industrial electricity in the southern region. The initial inventory has been digested to a reasonable level, and there is a certain need for replenishment. The logistics cost of transporting coal from the north to the south supports the price. This pattern of 'stability in the north and strength in the south' reflects regional differences in demand release and also affects the shipping strategies of traders.

Supply side:

Domestic production: After the New Year holiday, the resumption of work and production in coal mines in the main production areas continues to advance, and it is expected to resume normal production capacity from January 4-6, with the total supply tending to increase. However, local safety maintenance (such as the Heilonggou coal preparation plant) and fluctuations in coal quality in some mines still pose minor constraints on short-term effective supply.

Port inventory: positive signals emerging. Although the total inventory of major ports around the Bohai Sea is still at a historical high of 32.8 million tons, the process of destocking has begun, with a daily decrease of nearly one million tons. Among them, the inventory of Qinhuangdao Port, which serves as a market indicator, has dropped to 6.26 million tons. The loosening of inventory has brought a slight boost to market sentiment.

Demand side:

Electricity demand: The daily consumption ratio of the six major coastal power plants has increased to 837,400 tons, reflecting an increase in civilian electricity load under the influence of the cold wave. However, this value has not yet exceeded the critical value of 900000 tons, indicating that the recovery of industrial electricity consumption is still weak, and the overall enthusiasm for coal terminal transportation is not high, mainly relying on long-term cooperative transportation and inventory consumption.

Non electricity demand: The market sentiment of non electricity industries such as metallurgy and building materials has slightly improved, but has not fully recovered, which has limited demand for the market, especially for medium and low calorie coal.

Overall, the current market is in a game stage of "supply recovery, demand waiting to be stimulated", and port destocking is more due to the periodic adjustment of supply rhythm rather than strong driving force from the demand side.

External influences:

The changes in the international market are affecting the domestic market through import channels

1. Rising coal prices in Indonesia: The Indonesian government has announced a comprehensive increase in the reference price for thermal coal (HBA) for the first half of January 2026, and plans to reduce mining production quotas to support coal prices, demonstrating its strong willingness to raise prices.

2. Decline in US production: In the 51st week of 2025, both year-on-year and month on month coal production in the US decreased, revealing the long-term contraction trend of the coal industry under the adjustment of its domestic energy structure.

3. Impact on China: The rise in international coal prices has led to an increase in the cost of imported coal, and the current phenomenon of Indonesian coal prices being inverted from domestic coal prices continues. If the inverted range is expanded to more than 10 RMB/ton, the supplementary role of imported coal will weaken, thereby providing marginal support for domestic coal prices, especially in coastal areas.

Industry Outlook and Core Focus Points

In the coming period, the thermal coal market will revolve around the following core variables:

1. The quality of demand recovery: Whether the daily consumption of coastal power plants can effectively exceed 900,000 tons/day is a key indicator to determine whether the demand increment brought by the cold wave can be converted into substantial procurement demand.

2. Sustainability of inventory turnover: It is necessary to closely monitor whether the inventory at Qinhuangdao Port can fall below 6 million tons and whether the total inventory around the Bohai Sea can drop below 30 million tons. The sustained and rapid depletion of inventory is a prerequisite for tightening market liquidity and supporting prices.

3. The game between imports and policies: In addition to tracking changes in the price difference of imported coal, the implementation of domestic safety production and environmental protection policies, as well as long-term policy guidance on industry intelligence and green transformation, will profoundly affect the supply structure and enterprise costs.

Overall, the current thermal coal market is not a single trend, but a complex situation where high-quality resources are scarce and low-quality resources are surplus, and the northern market is calm while the southern market is active.

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