Starting in November 2025, the national average corn price began a gradual upward trend, sharply contrasting with the continuous decline seen throughout 2024. Entering December, the pace of corn price increases slowed, with a narrow decline observed nationwide in mid-December. As local grain sales accelerate, corn supply has increased, though the overall growth may be limited. Most markets are expected to maintain tight supply-demand conditions, suggesting corn prices could continue rising before the Spring Festival.

Starting in November, corn price trends for 2024 and 2025 diverged. From November 2025 onward, the national average corn price gradually climbed, sharply contrasting with the sustained decline seen throughout 2024. After December, corn price momentum slowed. From mid-December, national corn prices experienced a narrow decline. As of December 29, the national average corn price stood at 2,233.28 RMB/ton, up 87.55 RMB/ton from November 3, representing a cumulative increase of 4.08%.

Temporary Supply-Demand Mismatch Drives Strong Price Gains in Northeast China

Based on the seasonal patterns of corn prices over the past 14 years, the probability of price increases or decreases in November and December is roughly equal. In 2025, national corn prices gradually rose, with the strongest upward momentum observed in the Northeast region, contributing most significantly to the nationwide price increase. With low carryover stocks for the 2024/2025 corn season, coupled with prolonged rainy weather during the peak harvest period in North China and parts of Northwest China, corn procurement has slowed. This has led to a noticeable reduction in the supply of naturally dried corn compared to previous years, tightening grain availability. The slightly constrained supply-demand dynamics provide support for corn price increases.

For the Northeast market, the 2025 new-crop corn season shows notable improvements in both quantity and quality. Amidst declining corn quality in North China and parts of Northwest China, coupled with high storage costs and poor outbound logistics for Xinjiang corn, demand for Northeast corn has markedly increased in North China, Central China, and Southwest China. Additionally, downstream enterprises proactively reduced inventories ahead of the new-crop launch, with most firms increasing corn procurement demand after the new crop hit the market. On the supply side, rising prices have dampened selling enthusiasm among farmers and traders, leading to slightly tighter grain supplies. Both supply and demand factors supported the strong upward trend in Northeast corn prices during November.

Overall Supply-Demand Dynamics Likely to Remain Tight; Average Corn Prices May See Modest Upside

Monitoring data indicates that as of December 29, average grain sales progress in most Northeast regions exceeded last year's pace, reaching 42%—7 percentage points faster than the previous year. In contrast, overall sales progress in North China lagged behind last year's levels, averaging 35%—3 percentage points slower than the same period. As the Spring Festival falls on February 17, 2026, the post-holiday grain sales window will be shorter. Additionally, some farmers may still have cash flow needs. Based on past experience, grain sales by grassroots farmers in production areas may increase before the Spring Festival. However, given the slightly faster sales pace in Northeast China and strong reluctance among farmers to sell, pre-holiday sales in the region are expected to be limited. In North China, where grassroots grain stocks are slightly higher, a small sales peak may still occur before the holiday.

On the demand side, inventories in the trading sector across most production areas are lower than the same period last year. Downstream deep-processing enterprises and feed mills still have inventory replenishment needs. However, as market prices exceed industry expectations, some enterprises' procurement volumes may be slightly lower than the same period last year. Driven by inventory increases across downstream segments, corn demand is expected to rise.

Considering the overall market supply and demand situation, corn prices in Northeast China are expected to have room for further increases before the Spring Festival, while prices in North China may see a narrow decline. Given the significant influence of Northeast prices on the national average, the nationwide corn price average is projected to rise before the Spring Festival, with an increase of around 30 RMB/ton, potentially reaching approximately 2,260 RMB/ton.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.