- Price Data
According to the latest monitoring data of SunSirs, the average price of 180CST fuel oil in the mainstream domestic market as of September30 was 4,670.00 RMB/ton, up 3.78% from 4500.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.
The fuel oil commodity index on September 30 was 94.58, down 0.2 points from the day before, down 18.40% from the cyclical peak of 115.91 points (2018-10-17), and up 105.25% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)
- Analysis of Influencing Factors
Products: Domestic fuel oil trade was basically stable this month. The sharp rise in mid-term prices was mainly due to the impact of the attack on Saudi Arabia. At the end of the month, the mainstream price was around 4,650 RMB/ton. On September 27, Singapore Fuel Oil (380Cst) was quoted at a spot price of US$395.38 per ton, down US$16.72 per ton from the previous day (converted to RMB 2,797 per ton at the current exchange rate). As of September 25, Singapore's stock of residual fuel oil (except asphalt) increased 185,000 barrels, to 203.69 million barrels; that of light distillates increased 72,000 barrels, to 10.07 million barrels; and that of medium distillates increased 11.95 million barrels, to 13.664 million barrels.
Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, the US WTI crude oil was $56.71/barrel at the beginning of the month, and $55.91/barrel at the end of the month, the monthly rise and fall was -1.41%; Brent crude oil was $61.08/barrel at the beginning of the month, it was $61.91/barrel at the end of the month, the monthly decline was 1.36%. In September, the crude oil market rose in panic because of the attack on Saudi oil equipment; since the attack, the situation has stabilized, Saudi Arabia has not reduced oil exports, and U.S. inventories have increased, and international oil prices have fallen sharply.
Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were eleven kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in September 2019, of which four kinds of commodities had increased by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were methanol (15.85%), dimethyl ether (13.70%) and gasoline (6.36%). There were five kinds of commodities that had declined annually, two of which had declined by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products of the first three declines were liquefied natural gas (-6.05%), coke (-5.50%) and coking coal (-3.98%). The month's average rise and fall was 2.2%.
- Market Forecast
Energy analysts of SunSirs believe that the rise of international crude oil affected by the Saudi Arabian incident has led to a sharp rise in the ship-fired market. With the gradual stabilization of the situation, the price of crude oil has fallen, the terminal demand of the ship-fired market has returned to stability and the market has returned to rationality. Fuel oil market prices are expected to fall in October, ranging from 4,500 to 4,700 RMB/ton.
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