UBS's latest research report released on the 16th indicates that leveraging their electric vehicle technology advantages, increasingly robust distribution networks, and continuously rising brand recognition, Chinese automakers are poised to capture one-third of the global automotive market by 2030—a significant increase from this year's one-quarter share. UBS analysis indicates that after five years of overseas sales growth from 1 million to 6 million units, Chinese automakers are entering a “Globalization Strategy 2.0 phase.” With strengthened recognition of mainstream brands and expanded localized overseas manufacturing, overseas sales are expected to become a key growth driver for Chinese automakers by 2026.

More Overseas Households Buying Chinese Cars

In recent years, some overseas markets have intensified restrictions on Chinese automobiles. However, UBS analysis indicates that Chinese automakers' global market share will continue to grow. The report projects that by 2030, Chinese manufacturers will likely remain unable to penetrate the U.S. market. They may achieve minor breakthroughs in Japan, South Korea, and India, but market share is expected to remain below 2%. For Western Europe, UBS anticipates Chinese automakers' market share will rise from the current 5% to 15%. For other global markets, UBS believes Chinese automakers could easily achieve a 25% market share.

Overall, we project Chinese automakers' global market share will grow from below 20% in 2022 and one-quarter this year to over one-third by 2030. UBS bases this outlook on Chinese automakers' cost and production efficiency advantages in electric vehicles, stemming from China's vast, mature, and efficient supply chain. In politically and economically neutral regions like ASEAN and Latin America, Chinese brands are rapidly penetrating middle-class consumer markets—not only due to their high cost-effectiveness but also their technological innovation and eco-friendly features.

“China's surging auto exports are reshaping global markets by delivering affordable vehicles worldwide,” Bloomberg recently reported. In parts of South America, Chinese-made cars are increasingly dominating streetscapes, while in Europe, affordable yet high-quality electric vehicles from manufacturers like BYD are winning over millions of consumers.

Following five years of explosive growth that saw overseas sales surge from 1 million to 6 million units, UBS believes China's automotive industry is poised to enter “Globalization Strategy 2.0.” The next phase will focus on strengthening mainstream brand recognition and expanding localized manufacturing. Chinese automakers are transitioning from “low-cost” to technology-driven innovation, with brand and channel development becoming increasingly crucial—moving beyond mere product exports or component assembly.

Currently, multiple Chinese automakers are expanding into overseas markets. According to Reuters, Maria Grazia Davino, BYD's Managing Director for Europe, publicly stated on November 17 that BYD is actively entering the European market. By the end of 2025, BYD aims to establish 1,000 sales points across Europe, with plans to double this number by the end of next year. Separate media reports indicate that Great Wall Motors' Brazilian factory commenced operations in August this year, with products targeting the entire Latin American market. Great Wall now operates three full-process vehicle manufacturing centers in Russia, Thailand, and Brazil.

UBS notes that overseas sales currently account for 20% of China's total automotive industry volume, contributing 40%-50% of revenue for some Chinese automakers. Future profits for Chinese automakers will largely originate from overseas markets.

Nikkei Chinese Edition recently cited projections by Tang Jin, Senior Research Fellow at Mizuho Bank's Business Solutions Department and author of “The Day Chinese Cars Sweep the World in 2040.” Tang forecasts that in 15 years, Chinese brand vehicle shipments (including domestic sales, exports, and overseas production) will reach 40 million units—an increase of approximately 6 million units from current levels. Meanwhile, Japanese vehicle shipments are expected to remain largely stable at 22 million units.

UBS's report notes that Chinese automakers have been leveraging their technological advantages in electric vehicles and smart features to capture market share. Additionally, as China's export vehicles increasingly shift from budget internal combustion engine models to mid-range electric vehicles, brand perception is evolving. Currently, the typical retail price of Chinese electric vehicles in overseas markets has reached the $30,000 level, aligning with mid-range brands. Some leading Chinese automotive brands have achieved acceptance in Europe comparable to typical Western brands.

The report further forecasts that within China's domestic market, the market share of domestic Chinese automakers will grow from approximately 50% in 2022 to 70% by 2025, with projections indicating a further rise to 85% by 2030. Chinese automakers must establish their brands during the “Globalization Strategy 2.0 phase.”

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