Price trend:

According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, as of November 28th, the average price of domestic hot rolled sheet and coil steel was 3,326.7 RMB/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 0.893%; the average price of domestic cold rolled steel was 3,940 RMB/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2.233%. The price difference between cold and hot rolled products was approximately 614 RMB/ton.

Policy supported and domestic demand rebounded

According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Association on major excavator manufacturers, 18,096 excavators of various types were sold in October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.77%. Domestic sales accounted for 8,468 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.44%; exports totaled 9,628 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%. From January to October 2025, a total of 192,135 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 17%; domestic sales accounted for 98,345 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%; and exports totaled 93,790 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%. 16 electric excavators were sold in October 2025.

In October 2025, the domestic passenger car market was affected by factors such as shifts in holiday timing and policy adjustments. Retail sales of passenger cars (excluding commercial vehicles) reached 2.248 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. The pace of industry transformation continued to accelerate, with the strong performance of domestic brands and the new energy vehicle sector contrasting sharply with the pressure faced by joint venture brands.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in October 2025, China's air conditioner production reached 14.204 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%; cumulative production from January to October totaled 230.344 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. National refrigerator production in October was 8.788 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%; cumulative production from January to October totaled 89.959 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. National washing machine production in October was 11.035 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%; cumulative production from January to October totaled 101.078 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. National color TV production in October was 18.040 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%; cumulative production from January to October totaled 166.176 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%.

Prices for hot rolled steel strip were showing divergent trends

Looking back at the October market, the monthly settlement cycle from the 26th of last month to the present showed that steel strip prices in North China continued to fluctuate downwards, with the average price decreasing by 80-100 RMB/ton compared to the September settlement cycle. In late October 2025, the supply of steel strip had slightly tightened, but inventory levels remained high. Profit margins were compressed, and downstream operating rates had somewhat recovered, but supply still exceeded demand, and market confidence was weak.

Inventory Overview

According to Mysteel statistics, as of November 20th, the total inventory of hot rolled strip steel in major markets across China was 724,300 tons, a decrease of 59,800 tons compared to the previous week, a decrease of 228,400 tons compared to the same period last month, and an increase of 344,100 tons compared to the same period last year. The inventory of hot rolled strip steel in Tangshan was 361,900 tons, a decrease of 44,800 tons week-on-week, a decrease of 207,300 tons month-on-month, and an increase of 125,100 tons year-on-year.

Downstream Demand

As of November 20th, the apparent demand for hot rolled strip steel in the Tangshan area was 825,900 tons, a decrease of 57,200 tons week-on-week, an increase of 157,300 tons month-on-month, and a decrease of 81,400 tons year-on-year.

Market Forecast:

On the supply side, due to the recent improvement in steel mill profits, and with some steel mills resuming production after maintenance, output of the five major steel product categories increased slightly last week.

Regarding demand, according to a survey by Centennial Construction, as of November 25th, the funding availability rate for sampled construction sites was 59.56%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.24 percentage points. Specifically, the funding availability rate for non-residential construction projects was 60.68%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.43 percentage points; while the funding availability rate for residential construction projects was 53.99%, a week-on-week increase of 0.70 percentage points. The decline in overall funding availability was mainly due to non-residential construction projects, with the decrease in funding for non-residential projects being the largest in the past three months, indicating a continued weakening of demand during the off-season.

Regarding inventory, there was a decrease in the total inventory of rebar and hot rolled coils, and the overall destocking speed slowed down. The overall inventory of the five major steel products remained higher than in previous years, indicating continued inventory pressure.

Overall, demand for finished steel products was entering a slack season, and the pressure for a subsequent rebound was increasing. The overall situation showed weakness in both supply and demand, and fundamental contradictions were not yet significant. Therefore, steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term.

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