Rebar production nationwide fell by 167,700 metric tons week-on-week to 1.8931 million metric tons, down 331,700 metric tons year-on-year. Social inventories decreased by 236,200 tons week-on-week to 3.6113 million tons, up 595,800 tons year-on-year; factory inventories fell by 40,500 tons week-on-week to 1.4268 million tons, up 16,700 tons year-on-year; apparent consumption of rebar declined by 105,800 tons week-on-week to 2.1698 million tons, down 105,800 tons year-on-year. Rebar production has dropped significantly, inventory declines have accelerated, apparent demand has retreated, and supply-demand indicators remain robust. As year-end approaches, steel mills have increased production cuts and maintenance schedules, pushing rebar output to its lowest level since the Spring Festival. However, ongoing construction projects maintain some demand resilience, driving continued inventory drawdowns. Specification shortages have emerged in certain regions, compounded by a recent warming macroeconomic sentiment, providing strong support for rebar price trends. However, recent declines in raw material prices like coking coal and scrap steel have significantly improved mill profitability. Both integrated mills and electric arc furnace mills operating at break-even points now have some profit margins, raising expectations for accelerated production releases in the coming period. With a major policy meeting scheduled next week, the market widely anticipates signals regarding next year's economic policies. Rebar futures are expected to continue narrow-range consolidation in the short term.
Regarding hot-rolled coil, this week's national production decreased by 47,000 tons week-on-week to 3.1431 million tons, down 26,800 tons year-on-year. Commercial inventories fell by 24,500 tons week-on-week to 3.2043 million tons, up 931,400 tons year-on-year. Mill inventories rose by 19,000 tons week-on-week to 799,200 tons, up 15,900 tons year-on-year. Apparent demand for hot-rolled coil decreased by 53,600 tons week-on-week to 3.1486 million tons, down 22,300 tons year-on-year. With production declining, inventories slightly decreasing, and apparent demand falling, the data shows relatively weak performance. According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Association on major excavator manufacturers, 20,027 excavators of various types were sold in November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. Domestic sales reached 9,842 units, up 9.11% year-on-year, while exports totaled 10,185 units, rising 18.8% year-on-year. From January to November 2025, cumulative excavator sales amounted to 212,162 units, a 16.7% year-on-year increase. Domestic sales stood at 108,187 units, up 18.6% year-on-year, and exports reached 103,975 units, growing 14.9% year-on-year. The construction machinery sector maintains robust activity, providing some support for hot-rolled coil demand. However, overall demand for hot-rolled coils remains weak, making it increasingly difficult for steel mills to secure export orders. Production at hot-rolled coil mills remains high, creating significant pressure to reduce inventories. Hot-rolled coil futures are expected to trade in a weak-to-sideways pattern in the near term.
Iron Ore: Molten Iron Output Declines Further, Ore Prices Weak-to-Sideways
On the supply side, Australian shipments saw a slight decline, while Brazilian shipments rebounded, and shipments from other countries decreased. Australian shipments totaled 18.205 million tons, down 191,000 tons month-on-month, with shipments to China reaching 15.911 million tons, up 375,000 tons month-on-month. Brazilian shipments amounted to 9.453 million tons, up 1.475 million tons month-on-month. Among the four major mining companies: - Rio Tinto shipments decreased by 484,000 tons to 5.88 million tons. - BHP shipments increased by 970,000 tons to 6.07 million tons. - FMG shipments decreased by 282,000 tons to 3.989 million tons. - Vale shipments increased by 1 million tons to 6.462 million tons. Arrivals at 47 ports totaled 27.84 million tons, down 1.555 million tons month-on-month. Domestic mine capacity utilization and iron concentrate output increased, while domestic mine inventories rose.
On the demand side, 12 additional blast furnaces entered maintenance while 6 resumed operations. Maintenance primarily occurred in Xinjiang, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Hunan, and Hubei, mainly involving annual steel mill inspections with extended downtime. Rusted iron output decreased by 23,800 tons month-on-month to 2.323 million tons, while steel mill profitability rose by 1.3 percentage points to 36.36%.
Inventory-wise, imported iron ore stocks across 47 ports reached 159.9111 million tons, up 898,900 tons month-on-month. National steel mill inventories of imported ore increased slightly by 420,000 tons, with notable growth observed among mills primarily sourcing spot cargoes at major ports.
Overall, steel mill profits have rebounded somewhat. However, with annual blast furnace maintenance schedules underway, the decline in molten iron output has accelerated, while port inventories continue to accumulate. In the short term, iron ore prices may exhibit a fluctuating yet weakening trend.
As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 9th, the benchmark price of hot-rolled coils on the business information platform was 3330.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.10% compared to the beginning of the month (3326.67 RMB/ton).
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