Price trend:

Since November, new cotton processing was at its peak, leading to a continuous increase in market supply. The abundant harvest of new cotton had significantly suppressed cotton prices. Simultaneously, the textile market entered its traditional off-season, with textile companies experiencing slower new orders and production/sales growth. Under the combined pressure of supply and demand, cotton prices showed a slight downward trend this month. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of November 25th, the spot price of 3128B grade cotton was 14,829 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.20% compared to the beginning of the month.

In the futures market, both domestic and international prices declined, with US cotton prices experiencing a significant drop. As of November 25th, the settlement price of the Zhengzhou cotton futures main contract was 13,625 RMB/ton, a decrease of 10 RMB/ton compared to the end of October. The US cotton futures main contract was changed to the March contract; as of November 24th, the settlement price of the ICE cotton futures main contract was 64 cents/lb, a decrease of 1.54 cents/lb compared to the end of October.

Judging from theprice, cotton prices were at the middle level of the past year and the lowest level of the past three years.

Market Analysis

On the supply side: Domestic seed cotton procurement was nearing completion. According to the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, as of November 20, 2025, the national new cotton harvest progress was 98.9%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year; the national delivery rate was 98.1%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year; the national processing rate was 64.2%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points year-on-year; and the national sales rate was 27.9%, an increase of 17.3 percentage points year-on-year. This year, the purchase price of machine-picked cotton in Xinjiang was slightly lower than last year, averaging 6.19 RMB/kg; the price of hand-picked cotton was slightly higher than last year, averaging 7.02 RMB/kg.

Regarding inventory: At the end of November, the new cotton harvest was nearing completion, leading to concentrated pressure on cotton supply. National commercial inventory increased significantly, with a rise in the amount of new cotton processed and stored. As of November 21, 2025, total commercial cotton inventory stood at 3.8001 million tons.

On the import side: China's cotton import pattern underwent another structural change in 2025, with a significant decline in US cotton imports and an increase in the proportion of Southern Hemisphere cotton, primarily from Brazil and Australia. In October 2025, China imported approximately 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of about 10,000 tons month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of about 15.6%. From January to October 2025, China imported approximately 774,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of about 67.4%, reaching a near five-year low. Southern Hemisphere cotton imports amounted to approximately 550,000 tons, accounting for 70.7% of total imports, a near five-year high, with Brazilian and Australian cotton accounting for over 99.5% of the total.

Internationally: The latest USDA report significantly increased global supply by raising figures for US and Chinese cotton production, while only slightly increasing global consumption. This supply-side pressure on ICE cotton prices was compounded by a weak global economy and insufficient consumer demand, making a substantial boost to consumption unlikely.

According to the latest November global cotton supply and demand forecast report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), global production, consumption, trade volume, and stocks were all higher than the September forecast. Global cotton production was revised upward by 523,000 tons, with China's increase being 218,000 tons, the U.S.'s 196,000 tons, and Brazil's 109,000 tons. Global trade volume was revised upward by 65,300 tons, and consumption by 10,900 tons. Beginning stocks were revised upward by 87,100 tons, mainly due to updates to trade data for the 2024/25 marketing year in some countries. As a result of these changes, global ending stocks were revised upward by approximately 610,000 tons to 16,532,000 tons.

On the demand side: Since mid-November, the off-season characteristics of domestic sales of cotton textiles and apparel gradually emerged, with demand for conventional medium-count yarns such as C21-C40S gradually weakening. New orders and production and sales speeds for textile enterprises had both slowed down. Downstream textile enterprises mainly received small and short-term orders with limited growth, and the operating rate was lower year-on-year. However, there was no large-scale production stoppage in the industry, and enterprises were only maintaining a necessary replenishment pace for cotton raw materials.

Externally, although the agreement reached between China and the US boosted market sentiment, the pressure of supply in the short term remains the main contradiction in the market. Furthermore, due to the escalating global economic competition, the export market was fraught with uncertainty, and China's exports declined year-on-year since the beginning of this year. Customs data showed that in October, textile and apparel exports totaled $22.26 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 8.8%. Among them, textile exports were $11.26 billion, down 9.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.9%, while apparel exports were $11 billion, down 16% and a month-on-month decrease of 11.6%. From January to October, cumulative textile and apparel exports totaled $243.94 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%.

Market Forecast:

Ample supply and weak demand were the main factors suppressing cotton prices. However, despite limited new orders, textile mills had not significantly reduced or halted production, and cotton costs were fixed, limiting the downside potential for cotton prices. Historically, cotton prices in December generally fluctuated within a range. Without significant positive catalysts, the market is not expected to change much this year.

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