Price trend

As shown in the chart above, copper prices fluctuated and fell last week. By the end of last week, spot copper was quoted at 85,891.67 RMB/ton, down 0.76% from the beginning of the week (86,553 RMB/ton), up 16.34% from the beginning of the year, and up 15.25% year-on-year.

According to the weekly price chart from SunSirs, copper prices had fallen for five weeks and risen for seven weeks in the past three months, with a slight decline last week.

LME copper inventory

According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), LME copper inventories rose slightly, reaching 157,925 tonnes by the end of the week, a 16.08% increase from the beginning of the week.

Macroeconomic Overview: On Thursday evening, the U.S. Labor Department released its highly anticipated September non-farm payroll data, delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown. The data shocked the market. The U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September, far exceeding market expectations of 50,000, reversing the revised figure of 4,000 losses in August. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 4.4%, higher than the previously expected 4.3%. Prolonged high interest rates may weaken global liquidity, putting pressure on industrial metals. Copper prices immediately retreated after the non-farm payroll data release. The recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar, poised for its largest weekly gain in over a month, had significantly increased the cost of copper for foreign buyers, further suppressing copper prices.

On the supply side: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year; domestic copper concentrate spot processing fees continued to fluctuate around -$40, indicating that copper concentrate supply remained tight. A WBMS report released on November 19th showed that the global refined copper supply shortage reached 81,300 tons in September 2025.

On the demand side: Demand was diverging between traditional and emerging sectors, but overall resilience was strong. The real estate and home appliance sectors performed poorly in 2025, with adjustments in the real estate market suppressing copper demand, and policies such as "ensuring delivery of properties" unlikely to reverse the downward trend. Strong support from emerging sectors such as power, photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and artificial intelligence had offset the drag from declining demand in traditional sectors.

Market Forecast:

In summary: With the recent decline in copper prices, end-users were buying on dips, supporting spot transactions and leading to increased outflows from some warehouses. Meanwhile, weekend arrivals of imported copper remained low, and domestic supply was also limited, resulting in decreased inventories and providing support for copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will remain range-bound at high levels in the short term.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.