According to Sina Finance, U.S. soybean sales to China hit their highest weekly volume in over two years, lifting long-depressed agricultural commodity prices. However, questions remain about whether China will meet its 12-million-ton purchase target, the timing of these purchases, and the ripple effects on global markets.

China's Surge in Purchases Drives Price Gains, Accelerating Farmer Sales

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bechtold previously announced China's commitment to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by year-end—the largest procurement pledge since the Sino-U.S. trade war began. The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed nearly 1.6 million metric tons of soybean sales to China over three business days this week, marking the highest weekly volume since November 2023.

News of China's resumed purchases swiftly pushed soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) to their highest level since June 2024, rebounding nearly 12 percentage points from their five-year low in mid-October. The price recovery has prompted U.S. farmers, who had previously held back sales due to low prices, to accelerate sales of their 2025 harvest. Estimates indicate U.S. farmers have now sold approximately 30% to 40% of their crop, approaching or falling below the typical sales pace seen by mid-November in previous years.

Some farmers stated that while soybean selling prices may still fall below production costs, sales remain necessary to meet year-end cash flow needs.

China's purchases have created two major market impacts. On one hand, the premium for U.S. soybeans relative to competitors has widened. U.S. soybean prices have surged sharply, with the premium over main competitor Brazil's soybeans widening to about 50 cents per bushel (for January shipment), making U.S. soybeans less competitive for other international buyers like Turkey and Vietnam.

On the other hand, before the soybean price rally, some Chinese importers and other market participants had established long positions in the futures market, betting on price increases. As the U.S. confirmed the purchases, these longs closed their positions for profit, exerting downward pressure on January soybean futures prices.

12 Million Ton Purchase Target Faces Challenges, Sparking Market Doubts

Despite U.S. officials expressing optimism about the agreement's implementation, market traders and analysts question whether China can meet the 12 million ton purchase target by year-end. The challenges primarily center on three points.

First is the tight time constraint. Many experts, including Dan Bass, President of Chicago-based AgResource, believe China cannot possibly complete such a massive purchase volume by year-end. U.S. President Trump has also stated that purchases will be completed “by next spring,” suggesting the actual timeline may be longer.

Second, China's domestic stocks are ample. China purchased large quantities of South American soybeans earlier this year. To accommodate new U.S. soybean shipments, China may need to free up part of its state reserves.

Third, high tariffs and political risks persist. Despite the agreement, China has not lifted its 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans. This means commercial buyers may continue to wait for Brazil's new crop, making state-owned enterprises crucial to fulfilling procurement targets. Some Chinese traders worry that any delay in purchases could prompt the U.S. to resume hostile actions or withdraw from trade negotiations.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 24, the benchmark price of soybeans from SunSirs was 4280.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.56% compared with the beginning of the month (4256.00 RMB /ton).

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