According to China Chemical News, on November 17, the Titanium Dioxide Branch of the National Chemical Industry Productivity Promotion Center reported a noticeable rebound and growth in titanium dioxide exports. Customs statistics show China's titanium dioxide exports reached 156,300 metric tons in September, marking a 6.52% year-on-year increase and a 12.68% month-on-month rise.

Nearly all of September's export growth originated from Asia and Africa. India alone reached 22,500 metric tons for the month, a month-on-month increase of 7,600 metric tons—over 50% growth—accounting for more than 40% of the total monthly increase. This surge was primarily driven by local distributors stockpiling ahead of the formal removal of anti-dumping duties. Turkey, Egypt, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan collectively contributed 6,700 metric tons, each recording month-on-month growth exceeding 30%. South Korea maintained exports at 10,000 metric tons, with a slight 9% month-on-month increase, remaining the largest single-country market. Brazil imported 6,400 metric tons, a marginal 3% decrease month-on-month. The EU imported 13,700 metric tons, remaining largely unchanged. Since anti-dumping duties were imposed in the second half of 2024, demand in both regions has been constrained by high tariffs, resulting in minimal monthly fluctuations.

The recovery in exports was driven by several factors: First, the domestic ex-factory price for rutile-type sulfuric acid-processed titanium dioxide fell to 14,200 yuan at the end of August, hitting a four-year low. Factories announced a 300-500 yuan price hike for September, prompting overseas buyers to place concentrated orders amid concerns about a rebound. Second, news that India's Ministry of Finance would lift anti-dumping duties starting October 7th emerged in late September, stimulating advance procurement. Third, the RMB depreciated 0.9% against the USD in September, while ocean freight rates retreated nearly 20% from July's peak, temporarily restoring export profit margins. Fourth, construction peak seasons commenced in the Middle East and Africa, prompting downstream coatings and plastics manufacturers to stockpile materials in advance.

Looking ahead, overseas restocking will conclude in October-November. The incremental demand from India's anti-dumping duty removal won't materialize until November at the earliest, and local demand is capped at 280,000-300,000 tons, with China already accounting for 200,000 tons—leaving limited room for growth. The three major cases involving Brazil, the EU, and the Eurasian Economic Union cover nearly 30% of China's export market. Starting in 2026, high tariffs combined with carbon costs will systematically compress export space for sulfuric acid-based products. Domestically, new real estate construction area fell 21% year-on-year in the first nine months, while paint production declined 6%, leaving domestic demand unable to absorb overflow production. Regarding new capacity, 620,000 tons of projects are scheduled to come online domestically between December 2025 and May 2026. With global demand growing at only 2%–3% annually, the supply-demand imbalance will intensify further.

October export data will likely remain relatively strong due to the overseas Christmas season, which typically involves advance stockpiling, coupled with price increase notices from some producers that month. Although some countries and regions face impacts from anti-dumping measures, long-term demand is expected to return to its previous normal trajectory.

Supported by costs such as sulfuric acid, the downside potential for titanium dioxide prices remains limited. As of mid-November, titanium dioxide prices have largely stabilized compared to last week. Demand conditions remain unfavorable, with significant pressure on the supply side. Manufacturers face greater challenges, caught between weak downstream demand and substantial cost pressures. The lackluster demand has persisted for some time, a current reality. However, the continuous rise in raw material prices like sulfuric acid leaves manufacturers with little room to lower prices, leading many to maintain current pricing. The weakness in the demand market is largely driven by a “buy on the rise, not on the dip” mentality. Compounded by intense competition among buyers for essential purchases, suppliers are eager to secure orders and ship goods, while buyers adopt a cautious wait-and-see approach. This creates a pronounced sense of negotiation, leading to some disorder in the pricing market.

Currently, some producers and distributors hold slightly elevated inventory levels, while downstream users are controlling purchase volumes. Consequently, overall circulation is in a destocking phase. Historical market patterns suggest that price increases typically prompt suppliers to boost output, while decreases have the opposite effect. The current situation occupies a middle ground, where market supply is being adjusted through negotiation to achieve a state of near equilibrium between supply and demand. Inventory reduction essentially involves adjusting supply levels to align with subpar demand. Should the weak market sentiment persist, producers may face unsustainable pressure, potentially leading to a gradual decline in overall operating rates. Given current titanium dioxide price levels coupled with persistently high sulfuric acid costs, some producers are already operating at a loss. Consequently, the scope for further price declines appears limited. If weakness continues, production cuts and shutdowns may increase.

The domestic titanium dioxide market has clearly shown weakness in the fourth quarter. Some producers have made minor adjustments to spot prices, while intense competition in the trading market has caused slight anxiety among some end-users. However, there is no need for excessive concern; adopting a procurement strategy tailored for weak cycles is sufficient. Due to the sustained firmness of key raw materials like sulfuric acid, titanium dioxide producers face significant cost pressures, limiting the downward potential.

In terms of response strategies, at the corporate level, sulfuric acid-based production capacity should accelerate its shift to regions such as the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia where no cases have been filed. Chloride-based production should secure three- to five-year long-term contracts with downstream foreign-funded coatings groups to lock in EU CBAM exemption channels. Concurrently, efforts should focus on reducing high-titanium slag consumption per unit and increasing TiO₂ content to pursue quality premiums.

Overall, the September export surge resulted from short-term factors and lacks sustainability. By 2026, China's titanium dioxide exports will face triple pressures: high tariffs, elevated carbon pricing, and overcapacity. The industry urgently needs to break free from the low-price cycle by upgrading processes, optimizing production layouts, and establishing brand premiums.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 24, the SunSirs' titanium dioxide benchmark price stood at 13,500.00 RMB/ton, marking a 2.6% decrease compared to the beginning of the month (13,860.00 RMB/ton).

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