I. Overall Assessment

The global natural rubber spot market will maintain a “tight balance” in 2025, with supply remaining slightly constrained and demand showing stronger growth in the East than in the West continuing into 2026.

Prices will rise significantly from 2024 levels, though upside potential will be capped by low-cost synthetic rubber substitution and weak demand in Europe and the Americas. The overall trend will feature “volatile consolidation with gradual upward movement.”

II. Supply Side: Growth Nighly Stagnant, Center of Gravity Shifts from Asia to Africa

1. Global Production

Projected at 14.89 million tons in 2025, representing a mere 0.5% year-on-year increase—the slowest growth rate in a decade.

2026 growth is forecast to remain below 1%, still classified as low.

2. Traditional Major Producers Under Comprehensive Pressure

- Thailand: Extensive conversion of rubber plantations to durian and oil palm cultivation. Q1-Q3 2025 output declined 4.8% YoY (vs. 2023), with only 2%-3% low-speed growth projected for 2026.

- Indonesia: Aging smallholder rubber plantations and oil palm conversion led to a 26% year-on-year decline in production during the first three quarters of 2025 (compared to 2023). Production is expected to continue declining in 2026.

- Vietnam: Aging rubber trees and EU deforestation-free regulations led to an 11.2% year-on-year decline in production during the first three quarters of 2025 (compared to 2023), with little rebound expected in 2026.

3. Africa's Rise

- Côte d'Ivoire: Exports grew 14.8% YoY in Q1-Q3 2025, solidifying its position as the world's third-largest producer. Rapid growth will continue in 2026, making it the primary source of new global supply.

4. External Disruptions

- La Niña has formed (confirmed October 2025) and will persist through February 2026. Heavy rainfall in Southeast Asia's main production areas will disrupt tapping and transportation.

- Diseases like powdery mildew continue spreading, permanently reducing some rubber-producing capacity.

- An aging rubber-tapping workforce coupled with rising agricultural input and labor costs is shifting the global production cost center upward, continuously raising the price floor.

III. Demand Side: Rising East, Stable West, Structural Differentiation

1. Tires remain the largest demand driver (70% share)

- China: January-October 2025 automotive production and sales grew over 10% YoY, with new energy vehicles surging 32.7%, serving as the strongest global demand engine. Though the vehicle purchase tax reduction policy halves in 2026, robust replacement tire demand persists due to massive vehicle stock.

Additionally, China is a major tire exporter. According to General Administration of Customs data, cumulative tire exports reached 6.3908 million tons in the first nine months of 2025, up 4.88% year-on-year. However, on November 6, the European Commission initiated an anti-subsidy investigation into China's new pneumatic rubber tires, compounded by the ongoing anti-dumping probe, placing Chinese tire exports to Europe under dual pressure. Europe remains China's most critical overseas tire market, accounting for 40% to 47% of total passenger car tire exports. Given the broad scope of this investigation, a final ruling imposing high tariffs would erode the price competitiveness of Chinese tires in the European market, posing a potential threat to demand. Overall, China's domestic replacement tire market is expected to remain robust in 2026, with strong demand resilience underpinned by its massive vehicle fleet. On the export front, the EU's dual investigations may pressure the European market. Should high tariffs be imposed, export volumes could decline, requiring companies to explore new markets to counter potential threats.

- India: Rapid growth in automobile production is projected to drive rubber consumption beyond 800,000 tons by 2025, positioning India as the core driver of global demand growth.

- Europe and America: Slowing new vehicle sales coupled with high interest rates have already caused the replacement tire market to decline in Q3 2025 (Europe: -0.6% YoY), with little prospect of recovery in 2026.

2. Persistent pressure from low-cost synthetic rubber substitutes

Low crude oil and butadiene prices → Enhanced cost-effectiveness of synthetic rubber → Tire manufacturers reduce natural rubber content, limiting its upward potential.

IV. Core Conclusions for 2026 Spot Prices

- Strong support: Virtually zero supply growth + Rising cost base + La Niña weather disruptions

- Strong upward pressure: Weak demand in Europe and America + Low-cost synthetic rubber substitution

- Overall trend: Volatile with upward bias, gradual upward shift in center of gravity, unlikely to see unilateral sharp increases

- Spot price center expected to rise by $50–150/ton compared to 2025 (based on Thailand STR20)

Overall, the global natural rubber spot market in 2026 will remain in a tight balance characterized by “inelastic supply and divergent demand structures.” While the price floor is becoming increasingly solid, the ceiling is clearly defined, with a slow bull market and volatility as the primary trend.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 21, the benchmark price of natural rubber on SunSirs was 14,908.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.07% compared with the beginning of the month (14,750.00 RMB /ton).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.