According to China Energy Network, the international sugar market faces pressure from sustained high yields in the Southern Hemisphere and the commencement of the new processing season in the Northern Hemisphere. Domestic white sugar futures have shown slightly stronger performance than raw sugar futures, exhibiting a fluctuating downward trend ahead of the new processing season.

Brazil's Bountiful Harvest Drives High Exports

Brazil's Central-Southern region recorded a 2025/2026 sugarcane harvest of 607.38 million tons, below the previous estimate of 609.76 million tons; sugar production reached 41.34 million tons, exceeding the prior forecast of 40.64 million tons.

As of the second half of October, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's Center-South region reached 556.029 million tons, down 1.97% year-on-year. The sugar extraction rate stood at 51.97%, up 3.38 percentage points from 48.59% during the same period last year. Sugar production reached 38.085 million tons, up 1.63% year-on-year. Actual production data largely aligned with market expectations, with the bumper harvest persisting into the late crushing season.

The sustained high yields in the late season drove exports beyond market forecasts. Sugar exports from Brazil's Center-South region for October-December are projected to exceed the same period last year. From January to October 2025, Brazil's cumulative sugar exports reached 27.64 million tons, remaining at elevated levels overall. China imported a cumulative 4 million tons of Brazilian sugar during this period. Amid this production expansion cycle, Brazil's exports are projected to maintain robust growth momentum.

China's Major Sugarcane-Producing Regions Approach Crushing Season

By the end of September, the 2024/2025 crushing season had yielded 11.1621 million metric tons of sugar nationwide, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.1989 million metric tons or 12.03%. Carryover stocks for the 2024/2025 season stood at 682,000 tons, up 324,000 tons or 90.93% year-on-year. Guangxi sold only 266,000 tons in September, down nearly 200,000 tons year-on-year; the production-to-sales ratio was 93.16%, down 2.45 percentage points year-on-year.

Market sales slowed significantly in September. Heightened credit risks in Guangxi's spot market and rapid declines in international prices fueled widespread pessimism among traders. The 2024/2025 season concluded with inventory accumulation, transforming the anticipated “end-of-season rebound” into a “season-end downturn.”

With the new crushing season's full-scale operation imminent, market focus has shifted to new sugar pricing, production expectations in Guangxi, and the anticipated temporary supply tightness at the season's outset. For beet sugar, the first Inner Mongolia beet sugar mill commenced production on September 17, nearly 10 days later than planned.

For cane sugar, Yunnan mills commenced operations in late September. As of November 18, nine Guangxi mills have started production, with the bulk expected to begin crushing in late November and early December.

By November 18, Guangxi Sugar Group had largely cleared its old-crop sugar inventory, with most brands no longer offering external quotes, reducing reference points for traders. Traders quoted new sugar from Guangxi at 5,510-5,540 RMB/ton; Yunnan Sugar Group quoted old sugar at 5,500-5,550 RMB/ton and new sugar at 5,450-5,650 RMB/ton; processing mills quoted mainstream prices at 5,750-5,890 RMB/ton.

On November 14, white sugar futures prices broke through the 5,500 RMB/ton threshold, boosting spot market transactions and prompting some groups to fix prices. However, as more mills commence crushing, pressure is mounting. Market attention focuses on the pace of sugar delivery from newly operational mills, with low-priced sugar sources seeing more transactions while spot traders remain cautious in procurement.

Overall, Brazil's sustained high production and the commencement of the new northern hemisphere crushing season are weighing on raw sugar futures prices. Nevertheless, raw sugar futures are currently undervalued. Prices may rebound in the first quarter of next year following the release of high exports toward the end of Brazil's crushing season. As China approaches the peak sugarcane crushing period, attention should be paid to new sugar pricing developments.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 20, the benchmark price of white sugar on SunSirs was 5,576.33 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.48% compared with the beginning of the month (5,660.00 RMB/ton).

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