The Indian government announced a major policy adjustment for the sugar industry: formally approving the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar for the 2025/26 crushing season (starting in October). Simultaneously, the Ministry of Food and Public Distribution announced the elimination of the 50% export tariff on molasses.

The Indian government's approval of 1.5 million tons of sugar exports for the 2025/26 crushing season will significantly increase global supply, putting downward pressure on spot sugar prices. While the elimination of the molasses export tariff may indirectly support sugar producers' revenue, the direct effect is an increased risk of oversupply. Combined with current futures data (e.g., the closing price of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange 2601 contract was 5,478 RMB/ton, down 4 RMB/ton), the market is already weak, and the policy may further push down futures prices, reinforcing the bearish trend.

India's elimination of the 50% export tariff on molasses will significantly reduce export costs, stimulate international demand, and benefit spot molasses prices. The expected increase in export volume is expected to improve market liquidity and support price increases. There is currently no futures data available, but policy adjustments are considered a major positive factor and could drive the spot market higher.

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