Recently, lithium hexafluorophosphate is stirring up the "one price per day"new energy industry chain, with some market quotations as high as 150,000 RMB/ton, and the mainstream transaction price has doubled since mid-October.

In the wave of price increases, lithium hexafluorophosphate manufacturers are generally reluctant to sell, some manufacturers have stopped quoting to the outside world, and have shortened the credit period for downstream customers, demanding that small and medium-sized customers pay cash on delivery or pay a deposit in advance.

Industry insiders point out that the core reason for the current rise in lithium hexafluorophosphate prices is the mismatch between supply and demand: on the one hand, the downstream market demand has experienced explosive growth; on the other hand, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises are accelerating their exit under the pressure of losses, leading to a contraction in the supply side, coupled with the difficulty in quickly releasing short-term effective capacity, which further exacerbates the contradiction between supply and demand.

It is worth mentioning that the price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate has been passed on to the electrolyte link, and a positive feedback loop is gradually forming in the industrial chain. In the view of most interviewees, lithium hexafluorophosphate will maintain a tight balance between supply and demand in the short term, and the price is easy to rise but difficult to fall. Under the cautious expansion atmosphere, the overall industrial chain will tend to a benign recovery trend, and the profit of each link will stabilize at a reasonable level.

Over a month, the price doubled

"It's rising too fast, really caught us off guard." An industry player in the central China region toldSecurities Times reporter, "According to my knowledge, many electrolyte manufacturers already sensed the increase in lithium hexafluorophosphate in September and took some pre-emptive measures, but looking at the current trend, the pace of inventory building simply can't keep up with the price increase. Moreover, some lithium hexafluorophosphate manufacturers have stopped quoting to the outside world, and individual scattered orders are even facing the situation of no stock to deliver."

In the past month or so, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has been soaring, which can be called the "star of the rise" in the lithium battery industry chain.

"The current market quotations are rather chaotic. According to our statistics, the market quotations on November 12th were 145,000 RMB/ton - 155,000 RMB/ton, a jump of more than 20,000 RMB/ton from the previous day, and the mainstream transaction price has doubled within a month," said Zhao Weiwei, a senior analyst at Xinlu Information.

Against the backdrop of soaring prices, the lithium industry has shifted to a seller's market. "Now everyone in the downstream is competing to purchase goods, and the payment period is being shortened. Smaller manufacturers are required to pay in cash for delivery," said a lithium industry insider. Even in long-term cooperative relationships, orders can only be locked on a monthly basis, and prices have already started to vary from order to order, with customers required to pay a certain amount of advance payment.

Behind the shift in the balance of power in the upstream and downstream game, there are changes in the supply and demand of lithium hexafluorophosphate: downstreamnew energy vehicle and energy storage industry demand has burst, while the supply side has concentrated production capacity and is cautious in expanding production, resulting in a supply and demand gap.

From the demand side, power andenergy storageresonate to create an incremental market. According to SNE Research, the global electric vehiclebatteryshipment volume reached 811.7GWh from January to September this year, a year-on-year increase of 34.7%; according to ICC Xindongenergy storagedatabase statistics, the global energy storagebatteryshipment volume reached 428GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 90.7%. Since September, the energy storage market has continued to maintain a high growth trend, and the energy storage battery cell "is hard to find", and some enterprises have orders scheduled until 2026.

On the supply side, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has been depressed for more than two years, the industry has been losses, a large number of small and medium-sized production capacity has been cleared, and the effective capacity has been greatly reduced.

At present, the industry's effective capacity has been reduced to about 300,000 tons, with the top three manufacturers accounting for more than 70% of the market, basically in a state of full production and sales, and the market is highly concentrated. At the same time, the expansion cycle of lithium hexafluorophosphate is relatively long, and the technical and environmental protection thresholds are high, making it difficult to increase supply in the short term, which exacerbates the shortage of existing capacity.

Price increase transmission begins

Securities Times reporter has noted that the price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate has begun to transmit to the downstream, and is accelerating in the electrolyte link.

It is reported that lithium hexafluorophosphate is the core raw material of the electrolyte, accounting for 40%-50% of the cost. Faced with the sharp increase in cost brought by the price increase, electrolyte manufacturers have also started to support the price.

"Electrolyte prices have shown signs of recovery. To the best of my knowledge, most electrolyte manufacturers have increased the delivery prices to small digitalbattery manufacturers, and are also discussing price increases with power battery manufacturers." The above lithium battery industry insider toldSecurities Times reporter.

"In general, the transmission of raw material price increases has a certain lag and requires a certain period of time to digest. Recently, the market price of electrolyte has generally increased by 3,000 RMB/ton - 5,000 RMB/ton, but it has not yet fully covered the cost pressure. If downstream demand growth and lithium hexafluorophosphate continue, the transmission may be fully implemented," Zhao Weiwu said.

The changes at the price end are already reflected at the order level.

Recently, many downstream battery factories have signed long-term orders with the "King of Electrolyte"Tianqi Materialsto lock in the supply of electrolyte for the next few years.

On September 22nd, Tianci Materials signed an agreement withRuifulan Junto supply no less than 800,000 tons of electrolyte before December 31, 2030; on July 15th, the company secured a long-term order fromChunengNew Energy, expecting to supply a total of no less than 5.5 million tons of electrolyte series products to the latter by the end of 2030.

"Series long-term orders have been reached, which not only reflects the downstream's confidence in the future market, but will also support the existing price system to a certain extent, and accelerate the improvement of the supply and demand situation of the electrolyte," Zhao Weiwu said.

Short-term easy to rise difficult to fall

Under the positive feedback of the downstream, the market is more optimistic about the short-term trend of lithium hexafluorophosphate.

Zhao Weiwai said that the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has performed better than market expectations, and it will continue to rise until the end of the year, maintaining a high level of operation.

At present, the market is generally concerned about the price increase in this round or stimulating the industry's enthusiasm for production and expansion. If the small and medium-sized production capacity takes the opportunity to rise, will it trigger a new round of overcapacity?

In response to this, Zhao Weiwu pointed out that after the reshuffle in recent years, the expansion of production by industry enterprises is generally more rational and cautious, and the future increase in supply will mainly come from leading enterprises.

"Compared to other lithium battery materials, the construction period of lithium hexafluorophosphate projects is longer and the investment is larger. From the approval of the project, design, customization and purchase of equipment to the completion and commissioning, it takes at least 18 to 24 months. Even for the factories that have been built, it takes several months to resume production after being idle for several months to produce consistent products that meet the requirements."Duo Fu Dao said that in addition to the commissioning cycle, the cost gap between manufacturers is also widening. In the case of a low industry profit center, small and medium-sized scale manufacturers need to assess more factors when expanding production.

The Securities Times reporter noted that leading companies have reached a certain consensus on capacity expansion.

Although the outlook for the future market is positive, most people in the industry chain believe that the rapid rise in lithium hexafluorophosphate may not be sustainable in the long term.

"The extreme bull market of 2021-2022 is difficult to repeat, and the overall trend will remain relatively stable with the fluctuations of basic raw materials such as lithium carbonate."NewYubang said, expecting the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate to maintain a reasonable range that "ensures the company's reasonable profit margin and supports R&D and operational investment."

Against the backdrop of fluctuating raw material prices, the integrated layout advantage of leading electrolyte companies has been further highlighted.

Tianci Materials has an annual capacity of 110,000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate, has basically achieved self-supply of core raw materials, and maintains a high capacity utilization rate.Xinzhongbang has laid out upstream by investing in Jiangxi Shilei Fluorine Materials Co., Ltd., and currently the self-supply ratio of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 50% to 70%, and the self-supply rate will be further improved through technological transformation and expansion.

In the first three quarters of this year, the performance of the two aforementioned companies has maintained strong resilience. Tianqi Materials achieved a total operating income of 1.0843 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.34%; net profit was 421 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 24.33%; Zhongbang's revenue and net profit were 6.616 billion RMB and 748 million RMB, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 16.75% and 6.64%.

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