According to the Agricultural Inputs Guide of China Chemical Industry News, the 25th Phosphate Fertilizer Production and Sales Conference, jointly hosted by the China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association and the China Agricultural Inputs Circulation Association on November 6, analyzed shifts in international and domestic fertilizer market supply and demand to guide the healthy development of the domestic industry.

The conference highlighted that the global phosphate fertilizer market is experiencing steady growth in both supply and demand.

Global phosphate fertilizer production capacity and output have remained stable over the long term. In the past 10 to 15 years, annual global diammonium phosphate (DAP) production has been maintained between 33 million and 36 million tons, with trade volumes approaching half of annual production. Major exporting countries include China, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. China was once the largest exporter, but due to the impact of China's export inspection policy in 2022, its export share has declined from 36% to around 20%, gradually adjusting its influence in the international market. From 2024 to 2025, approximately 3.3 million tons of new DAP production capacity will be added globally, further bolstering market supply.

On the demand side, India remains the market's core driver. India imported 6.7 million tons of DAP in 2023, over 4 million tons in 2024, and is projected to exceed 5 million tons in 2025. Despite ongoing domestic capacity expansion, India will remain highly import-dependent in the short term. Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Southeast Asian countries form a stable tier of demand, supporting global trade flows.

Domestic phosphate fertilizer production and sales show steady growth. Domestic DAP consumption has risen from approximately 8.5 million tons at the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan period to the current 9.5 million tons, while MAP consumption has remained stable around 10 million tons, driven by both agricultural and industrial demand. By 2025, domestic DAP production is projected to exceed 13 million tons, with MAP production nearing 12 million tons, ensuring ample supply capacity.

Export markets exhibit structural shifts, with traditional DAP and MAP exports declining year-on-year. From January to September 2025, DAP exports totaled 2.5 million tons (a 24% year-on-year decrease), while MAP exports reached 1.25 million tons (a 21% year-on-year decrease). In contrast, exports of nitrogen-phosphorus binary fertilizers surged dramatically, rising from 920,000 tons in 2023 to nearly 4 million tons in 2025.

Regarding pricing, domestic DAP prices in China rose steadily from mid-February to late April 2025 before stabilizing due to industry self-regulation efforts to ensure supply and stabilize prices. The price differential between international and domestic markets peaked at 1,500 yuan, primarily driven by the global supply-demand restructuring following China's export contraction and differing cost support structures.

Currently, China's phosphate fertilizer enterprises face multiple pressures: rising raw material costs like sulfur drive up production expenses, while supply chain bottlenecks undermine market confidence. Companies should pursue breakthroughs through four strategies. First, strengthen production-sales coordination by optimizing inventory management and enhancing government-enterprise collaboration to alleviate distribution pressures. Second, diversify into new energy sectors, using high-value-added businesses to support the chemical fertilizer segment and rebuild profit models. Third, deepen technological innovation by focusing on fine phosphorus chemicals, such as developing polyphosphate products with approximately 20% polymerization rates to enhance phosphorus absorption efficiency and launching new products like enhanced-efficiency diammonium phosphate. Fourth, uphold environmental responsibilities through sustained investment in eco-friendly projects like phosphogypsum treatment to balance policy requirements with corporate profitability.

Looking ahead to 2026, domestic phosphate fertilizer capacity will continue expanding, with steady growth in diammonium phosphate (DAP) and monoammonium phosphate (MAP) production, while demand still holds upward potential. Industry consolidation will accelerate amid policy regulation, technological iteration, and market dynamics. Enterprises must align with policy directions, drive product upgrades through technological innovation, and achieve high-quality development while ensuring stable supply and prices.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 10, the benchmark price of monoammonium phosphate on SunSirs was 3483.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.57% compared with the beginning of the month (3363.33 RMB /ton).

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