According to China Nonferrous Metals News, tin price movements in the second half of this year have been influenced by tight global mine supply. On one hand, delayed production resumption in Myanmar's Wa State and Indonesia's intensified crackdown on illegal mining have exacerbated supply pressures; On the other hand, macroeconomic tailwinds—including heightened expectations for Fed rate cuts, China's signals to stabilize growth, and the October Kuala Lumpur trade talks consensus between China and the US—jointly propelled the Shanghai Tin main contract price above 290,000 RMB/ton.

Entering Q4, as Myanmar's Wa State tin mines gradually resume production, supply is expected to grow steadily. However, weak demand remains challenging to reverse. Amid sustained support from low inventories and fluctuating macroeconomic expectations, the main Shanghai tin contract price is projected to fluctuate within the 270,000-300,000 yuan/ton range.

Myanmar's Production Resumption Emerges as Key Supply Boost

Global tin ore supply will show marginal improvement quarter-on-quarter in Q4, primarily driven by the gradual resumption of operations at Myanmar's Wa State mines. The Wa State region finalized its first batch of mining resumption plans in July. Although actual supply increases from Myanmar were limited in Q3, imports of tin ore from Myanmar to China are expected to steadily rebound starting in Q4, alleviating the tight raw material inventory situation at smelters in Yunnan Province.

In Indonesia, despite the president's late-September order to shut down approximately 1,000 illegal tin mines and crack down on smuggling, this policy primarily impacts small and medium-sized smelters reliant on illegal sources. Large-scale compliant production capacity remains largely unaffected. According to projections by the Indonesian Tin Exporters Association, the country's refined tin exports are expected to increase from 45,000 tons to 53,000 tons by 2025, indicating an overall upward trend in supply capacity.

In the third quarter, domestic refined tin production growth was constrained by raw material supply. September output reached only 9,770 tons, a significant month-on-month decline of 34.69%, primarily due to dual constraints: concentrated maintenance at smelters in Yunnan and Guangxi, coupled with raw material shortages.

Entering the fourth quarter, marginal improvements in raw material supply are gradually unlocking smelting capacity. Major smelters in Yunnan completed maintenance in September and resumed normal production starting October. Concurrently, imports of Myanmar tin ore steadily increased, further replenishing raw material inventories. Against this backdrop, domestic refined tin output is expected to rebound.

Traditional Sectors Underperform

In the second half of the year, overall tin consumption demand remained weak, with most major consumption sectors showing lackluster performance. The electronics market, a traditional consumption pillar, has yet to show substantive recovery. According to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology's “August 2025 Domestic Mobile Phone Market Operation Analysis Report,” domestic mobile phone shipments in August reached 22.603 million units, down 6.0% year-on-year. Cumulative shipments from January to August totaled 192 million units, a 1.7% year-on-year decline.

Low willingness among end-users to stockpile products directly constrained the rebound in orders for solder manufacturers, with spot market transactions predominantly driven by essential needs. Concurrently, the current high tin prices continue to exert a suppressing effect on consumption.

The photovoltaic sector also faces pressure. Against the backdrop of earlier demand being exhausted by rush installations, new domestic photovoltaic installations in the third quarter declined by 1.8% year-on-year, further confirming the overall weakness in demand. Although tin consumption from AI servers continues to grow rapidly, this emerging sector accounts for a small portion of overall tin consumption. Consequently, it remains difficult to effectively offset the decline in traditional tin consumption in the short term. Overall, the supportive role of demand on tin prices has significantly weakened.

In the fourth quarter, the tin market exhibited the characteristic of “marginal improvement in supply amid persistent demand weakness.” On one hand, the resumption of production at Myanmar's Wa State tin mines and the rebound in Indonesian tin ore exports jointly drove sequential supply growth, suppressing upward price momentum. On the other hand, amid persistently low global tin inventories, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and marginal improvements in Sino-US relations, the downward trajectory of tin prices remained relatively limited.

Overall, the main Shanghai tin contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 270,000 to 300,000 yuan per ton. Key factors to monitor going forward include the actual supply increase from the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State and the latest developments in domestic and international macroeconomic policies.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 5th, the benchmark price of tin on SunSirs was 285,620.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.45% compared with the beginning of the month (284,350.00 RMB/ton).

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