Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic price of polyester staple fiber first fell and then rose in October. As of October 30, the average market price of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) was 6,356 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.94% compared with the beginning of the month.

Influencing factors

Following the holiday, polyester staple fiber prices continued to decline. This was mainly due to weak macroeconomic conditions caused by tariffs, the commissioning of new PTA plants, and the continued negative sentiment resulting from weak costs and sluggish demand, leading to a downward shift in polyester staple fiber prices. In the latter half of the month, as oil prices rebounded from their lows, overall cost and commodity sentiment improved, and downstream procurement increased during the traditional peak season, pushing up polyester staple fiber prices.

As of October 29, the settlement price of the December contract for WTI crude oil futures was $60.48 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December contract for Brent crude oil futures was $64.92 per barrel. OPEC+ is highly likely to maintain its production increase in December, continuing the ample supply situation. With no significant improvement on the demand side, the supply-demand imbalance persisted. The lack of new developments in the geopolitical situation provided limited support for oil prices.

The domestic PTA market in October showed a trend of initial decline followed by a rise. As of October 30th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,552 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.93% compared to the beginning of the month. Major factories in Northeast China that had previously undergone maintenance restarted their units, and theindustry operating rate was around 78%. Furthermore, 2.7 million tons of new PTA capacity in East China had already begun trial production, and overall PTA output is expected to continue to increase. Additionally, if PTA companies proactively reduce production due to low processing fees, PTA inventories may not accumulate in November and December, potentially pushing up PTA prices. However, if the production cuts are limited, the ample supply situation will remain unchanged.

Rising costs drove yarn factory prices up, but prices had stabilized after the initial increase due to limited demand. After mid-October, the combination of cold weather and the Double Eleven shopping festival boosted demand for winter fabrics, improving downstream weaving orders and increasing textile companies' willingness to replenish raw materials, thus easing inventory pressure on downstream yarn factories. Overall, the "Silver October" sales season was lackluster, with limited seasonal strength; most purchases focused on digesting previous raw material stockpiles, maintaining only essential demand.

Market outlook

Analysts at SunSirs believe that in the short term, cost support and a temporary improvement in demand are boosting polyester staple fiber prices, which are expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend. However, with new PTA plants coming online and previously shut-down plants gradually resuming operations, cost support will weaken. Furthermore, the peak demand season is also coming to an end, limiting the upside potential for polyester staple fiber prices. The market outlook will still depend on fluctuations in cost prices and the state of end-user demand.

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