According to the National Business Daily, the international precious metals market has recently experienced a rollercoaster-like surge, with both gold and silver prices exhibiting extreme volatility. Gold led the charge with a strong upward trend, driven by sustained capital inflows. It successively broke through three major psychological barriers—$4,100, $4,200, and $4,300 per ounce—continuously setting new historical highs. The silver market also delivered a standout performance. Boosted by gold's momentum and improved supply-demand expectations, it shattered a 45-year-old historical record in mid-October, decisively breaking through the $50-per-ounce threshold.

However, the precious metals market experienced a historic flash crash on October 21. That day, December gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $4,109.1 per ounce, marking a daily decline of 5.74%. Silver prices exhibited even greater volatility, with December silver futures closing at $47.70 per ounce, a steep drop of 7.16%. Notably, the sharp decline in gold and silver prices on October 21 was not a short-term anomaly. Although precious metal prices did not experience such steep drops in the following days, the downward trend persisted.

The primary reason for this plunge was signs of easing in geopolitical tensions, significantly cooling the safe-haven demand that had been a core driver of gold's price rise. According to CCTV News, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in a speech on October 21 that Ukraine was prepared to end the conflict with Russia. This declaration, coupled with easing global trade tensions, weakened market demand for safe-haven assets, prompting significant capital outflows from the precious metals market.

A strengthening U.S. dollar emerged as another key factor suppressing gold prices. Recently, the U.S. Dollar Index has risen for consecutive days. Since both gold and silver are priced in U.S. dollars, dollar appreciation has significantly increased the cost for investors holding other currencies to purchase precious metals, thereby suppressing buying demand. The wave of profit-taking triggered by excessive earlier gains has further amplified the decline. The rapid surge in precious metal prices earlier had already shown signs of overheating, with technical indicators indicating clear overbought conditions. Once market sentiment shifts, it easily triggers concentrated selling.

Regarding the precious metals market's future trajectory, Barclays' analysis team notes that despite the sharp near-term correction, gold's over 50% gain this year reflects market distrust in the current global fiscal and monetary order—a core driver that remains intact. Fundamentally, central bank gold accumulation, retail allocation demand, and rising gold mining production costs continue to provide support. Some institutions caution that precious metals still face downside risks. Goldman Sachs analysts specifically warn of silver's vulnerability to declines. They note that current expectations and the implementation of Fed rate cuts are driving private investment capital into gold and silver markets, providing crucial short-term support. However, silver's market performance is expected to exhibit higher volatility in the near term, with downside risks significantly exceeding those of gold. The core reason lies in the vast disparity in market size—the silver market is only about one-tenth the size of the gold market. Its relatively low liquidity means that capital inflows and outflows can more easily create a “magnifying effect” on prices. Whether during upward rallies or downward corrections, silver's volatility often far exceeds that of gold.

Overall, the international precious metals market is navigating a phase where “long-term support” and “short-term corrections” are in contention. Long-term drivers like the gold-buying spree by central banks worldwide provide solid foundational support, while shifts in geopolitical tensions, the trajectory of the U.S. dollar, and short-term capital flow adjustments continue to disrupt market sentiment.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 4, the benchmark price of silver on SunSirs was 11,341.67 RMB/kg, a decrease of 1.17% compared with the beginning of the month (11,476.00 RMB/kg).

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