Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market experienced a significant decline in October 2025. From October 1st to 30th, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market price decreased from 8,886.67 RMB/ton to 7,516.67 RMB/ton, a drop of 15.42% during the period.

Early October: After the holiday, the 1,3-butadiene market was generally weak. Domestic major refineries generally lowered their ex-factory prices significantly. Downstream demand was generally weak, the synthetic rubber market was weak, the enthusiasm for entering the market was low, the purchasing intention was weak, the actual market transactions were poor, and there was a lack of demand support. The 1,3-butadiene market was generally weak.

Late October: The 1,3-butadiene market initially stabilized before declining. Initially, downstream demand was insufficient, and the synthetic rubber market showed low activity, resulting in weak purchasing intentions for 1,3-butadiene. Actual market transactions were poor, and the spot market remained weak with slight price reductions. Towards the end of the month, the combined effects of restarting maintenance units and new capacity coming online led to a relatively loose supply. The international market continued to decline, creating numerous negative factors that caused a significant drop in the 1,3-butadiene market at the end of the month. As of the 30th, the mainstream delivered price in Shandong was 7,520-7,650 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

Cost Side: According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the crude oil market experienced a decline followed by a rise this cycle. In the first ten days of the month, the crude oil market was affected by negative factors. On the one hand, OPEC+ had initiated a new round of production increases of 1.65 million barrels per day, and the market remained concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply, leading to a continued decline in crude oil prices. On the other hand, the easing of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, coupled with weakening US demand, and the dragging down of global economic and demand expectations by US tariffs, along with increased US crude oil inventories and the end of the peak US oil consumption season, resulted in a pessimistic global economic outlook and oil demand, causing a rapid decline in international oil prices. In the latter part of the month, OPEC+ initiated a new round of production increases of 1.65 million barrels per day, and the market remained concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply. The easing of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, coupled with weakening US demand, and the dragging down of global economic and demand expectations by US tariffs, led to a rapid decline in international oil prices. However, later in the month, as the US and Europe continued their sanctions against some oil-producing countries, and concerns about the negative pressure from US tariffs and trade disputes eased, the crude oil market trended upward. As of the 29th, the settlement price of the December contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $60.48 per barrel. The settlement price of the December contract for Brent crude oil futures was $64.92 per barrel.

On the supply side: As of October 30, the listed price of 1,3-butadiene by Sinopec's various sales companies was 7,900 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1,100 RMB/ton compared with the same period last month.

Shenghong Petrochemical's 200,000-ton/year 1,3-butadiene unit was operating normally, with a price of 7,550 RMB/ton.

Yantai Wanhua's 200,000-ton/year 1,3-butadiene unit was operating normally, with a price of 7,500 RMB/ton.

Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000-ton/year 1,3-butadiene unit had restarted, with 336 tons sold externally at a base price of 7,800 RMB/ton.

On the demand side: Since October, some domestic 1,3-butadiene production rebounded due to the restart of some plants. Coupled with the fluctuating decline in international crude oil prices, 1,3-butadiene prices hadfallen sharply, significantly shifting the cost center of BR downwards. Furthermore, BR operating rates initially rose and then fell in October, gradually easing supply pressure. Downstream tire production saw a slight but steady increase, mainly supporting BR demand. Under these combined influences, BR prices weakened in October. According to data from the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of October 30th, the market price of BR in East China was 11,190 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.11% from 11,670 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.

Future Outlook

From the supply side, with the commissioning of new plants and the addition of new capacity, the market expects the ample supply situation to continue for some time, resulting in an overall bearish supply outlook. On the demand side, although the synthetic rubber futures market had strengthened slightly, market purchasing sentiment remained primarily driven by immediate needs, with low market participation and weak purchasing intentions. Actual market transactions were poor, indicating a bearish demand outlook. In summary, given the weak supply and demand situation, the 1,3-butadiene market is expected to be weaker in the near term, with a focus on downstream demand.

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