Price trend

According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market showed a volatile upward trend in December 2025. From December 1st to 30th, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market price increased from 6,983.33 RMB/ton to 8012.5 RMB/ton, representing a price increase of 13.85% during the period.

Early December: At the beginning of the month, the domestic 1,3-butadiene market continued the weak, low-price trend from November. However, influenced by rising international prices and stronger price support from suppliers, low-priced sources became scarce. The downstream synthetic rubber futures market rebounded, and synthetic rubber capacity utilization remained high, leading to steady purchasing demand and an improved trading atmosphere in the spot market. Prices fluctuated upwards, but due to high port inventories and continued weak operating rates in the tire industry, terminal demand support was limited, resulting in insufficient upward momentum and restricted price increases.

Late December: In the latter half of the month, the 1,3-butadiene market generally trended upwards. A temporary shutdown for maintenance at Dongming Petrochemical reduced supply, and coupled with concentrated price increases from major companies, market prices rose sharply. However, as prices increased, downstream buyers became less active, and high-priced transactions faced resistance. Furthermore, increased inventory of BR and a slowdown in the synthetic rubber market's upward trend led to a weakening of the 1,3-butadiene market, resulting in an overall volatile and consolidating trend. Towards the end of the month, strong linkage between futures and spot prices of downstream synthetic rubber, coupled with rising international prices, fueled strong bullish sentiment, leading to another price increase at the end of the month.

Market Analysis

Cost side: In the first ten days of the month, the market fluctuated within a narrow range. News of a slight increase in OPEC+ production in December and a suspension of production increases in the first quarter of 2026 briefly boosted market sentiment, but failed to reverse the loose supply situation. Domestic commercial crude oil inventories at ports increased by 1.67% month-on-month, indicating initial signs of supply pressure. After the middle of the month, concerns about a global crude oil surplus intensified, causing Brent crude oil to fall below $60/barrel, leading to a decline in the domestic market. Although geopolitical events such as the escalation of US sanctions against Venezuela triggered a short-term rebound, it failed to change the overall trend. Towards the end of the month, as the year-end approached, market trading activity decreased due to pressure from capital repatriation. Domestic major refineries maintained low operating rates, and weak end-user demand persisted, further suppressing oil prices. The entire period was characterized by a volatile downward trend driven by fundamental factors. As of the 26th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures February contract was $56.74/barrel, and the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures February contract was $60.60/barrel.

Supply side: As of December 29th, the listed price of 1,3-butadiene from various Sinopec sales companies was 8,300 RMB/ton, an increase of 1,200 RMB/ton compared to the same period last month.

Shenghong Refining & Chemical's 200,000 tons/year 1,3-butadiene plant was operating normally, with prices increased by 200 RMB/ton to 8,200 RMB/ton.

Yantai Wanhua's 200,000 tons/year 1,3-butadiene plant was operating normally, with 84 tons available for sale, starting at 7,900 RMB/ton.

Satellite Chemical's Lianyungang Petrochemical 90,000 tons/year 1,3-butadiene plant was operating normally, with prices increased by 100 RMB/ton to 8,100 RMB/ton.

Demand Side: According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the domestic BR market fluctuated upwards in December 2025. Prices in East China rose from 10,660 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month to 11,100 RMB/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4.03%. On the supply side, the operating rate of domestic BR plants increased slightly, with most major plants operating stably. Only a few plants, such as Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical, underwent maintenance, resulting in overall stable market supply. On the cost side, the price of 1,3-butadiene, the raw material, rose by over 13% during the month, increasing the cost of BR. On the demand side, due to the seasonal off-season, the operating rate of the downstream tire industry was low, and procurement was mainly driven by essential needs. This, coupled with year-end pressure to recover funds, led to a decrease in market trading activity, narrow fluctuations in enterprise inventories, and limited price increases.

Market Outlook:

In the short term, three main factors - tight supply, strong demand, and correlation with international markets - will continue to dominate the market. 1,3-butadiene prices are likely to maintain a strong but volatile trend, although resistance from end-users and inventory pressure will limit the extent of price increases. Downstream demand remains weak, and the synthetic rubber market is expected to fluctuate in the first quarter, lacking clear upward drivers. The tire industry is still in its seasonal off-season, with procurement mainly driven by essential needs, lacking significant additional support. Overall, the 1,3-butadiene market is expected to maintain a strong but volatile trend in the short term; however, a lack of support in the medium to long term suggests insufficient upward momentum. Future market developments will depend on downstream purchasing demand and the impact of plant maintenance schedules.

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