Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic polyester staple fiber price rose slightly last week (October 20-24). As of October 24, the average market price of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) was 6,314 RMB/ton, up 0.38% from the beginning of the week.

Analysis review 

A decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, coupled with easing market concerns about trade disputes, led to an increase in international oil prices. On October 23, the December settlement price of the U.S. WTI crude oil futures contract was $61.79 per barrel, and the December settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract was $65.99 per barrel.

Strong oil prices boosted PTA prices. As of October 24th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,468 RMB/ton, up 2.41% from the beginning of the week. Regarding supply, Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 million ton plant reduced its capacity to 80% on October 17th, and Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million ton plant resumed production on October 14th, bringing the industry's overall operating rate to around 75%. Sichuan Energy Investment's 1 million ton plant and Ineos' 1.1 million ton plant were scheduled for maintenance in October, and Dushan Energy's new 3 million ton plant is scheduled to start production next week.Pay attention to the actual implementation situation.

On the demand side, most textile companies were seeing decent order book performance, but follow-on orders were somewhat weak. Consequently, yarn mill quotes remained stable, with actual transactions largely driven by market trends. While end-user weaving orders recently improved with the cooler weather, sentiment had temporarily improved, but product differentiation remained significant, and overall demand was weaker than in previous years. Most manufacturers primarily focused on consuming pre-stocked raw materials, maintaining a rigid demand for raw materials.

Market outlook

Analysts at SunSirs believe that the strengthening of polyester staple fiber prices was primarily driven by a recovery in costs. In the future, short-term support from the cost side remains, and with the weather turning colder, downstream demand will see a structural recovery in domestic sales, and autumn and winter orders will also improve. Therefore, a sustained rebound in the polyester staple fiber market is expected in the short term.

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