Price trend
As shown in the chart above, copper prices fell before rising last week. By the end of the week, spot copper was quoted at 86,433.33 RMB/ton, up 0.71% from 85,823.33 RMB/ton at the start of the week, up 17.07% from the beginning of the year, and up 12.94% year-on-year.
Copper weekly rise and fall chart
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, in the past three months, copper prices fell for 3 weeks and rose for 9 weeks. Copper prices rose slightly last week.
LME copper stocks
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), LME copper stocks fell slightly. As of the weekend, LME copper stocks were 136,925 tons, down 3.39% from the beginning of the month.
On the macro front: The United States planned to restrict exports of products containing US technology to China in retaliation for new rare earth regulations. While the specific details had yet to be finalized, Treasury Secretary Benson & Melson stated that "all options are under consideration." This move could exacerbate tensions between China and the US. However, the market remained focused on expectations of Federal Reserve easing. If the US September core CPI data, released this Friday, meets or falls short of expectations, it will further strengthen the 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December. This pressure on the US dollar is positive for copper prices. China's Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee, which concluded on October 24, was expected to release a new five-year plan, emphasizing the expansion of domestic demand, industrial upgrading, and technological innovation, injecting long-term momentum into demand for base metals like copper.
On the supply side: Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's refined copper production reached 1.266 million tons in September, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.7%, in line with expectations. Traders expected production to decline further in October. A series of copper mine outages overseas, coupled with a continued decline in global mine grades—Chilean copper grades had fallen from 1.2% in 2010 to 0.8% in 2025—had led to soaring mining costs, exacerbating concerns about supply contraction. Domestic electrolytic copper spot inventories fell by 5,700 tons on the 23rd compared to the 20th. Despite some arrivals during the week, overall inventories had fallen.
On the demand side: High copper prices were suppressing downstream consumption, and some warehouses were experiencing limited inventory reductions due to limited outflows. However, the resilience of the new energy sector continued to boost consumer expectations. New energy vehicles use 83 kilograms of copper per vehicle (four times that of fuel vehicles), and global sales are expected to exceed 30 million by 2025, generating over 200,000 tons of new demand. Photovoltaic capacity requires 500 tons of copper per gigawatt, and an additional 596 GW of installed capacity will represent an increase of 300,000 tons. AI servers use 1.36 tons of copper per unit (compared to 3-5 kilograms traditionally), driving a surge in demand for data center construction. Power grid upgrades in China and the United States continue to drive copper demand.
Market outlook
In summary: Despite support from relatively stable fundamentals and expectations of interest rate cuts, the escalating risks of Trump's tariff policy continue to weigh on copper prices. Copper prices are expected to remain range-bound.
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