Macroeconomics

1. [M2] Central Bank: At the end of September, the balance of broad money (M2) was 335.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year. Net cash injection in the first three quarters was 761.9 billion yuan.

2. [RMB Loans] Central Bank: At the end of September, the balance of RMB loans was 270.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan in the first three quarters.

3. [Social Financing Data] Central Bank: According to preliminary statistics, the total social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan at the end of September 2025, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year.

The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first three quarters of 2025 was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 14.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 851.2 billion yuan; foreign currency loans to the real economy decreased by 94.6 billion yuan in RMB terms, a year-on-year decrease of 111.7 billion yuan; entrusted loans decreased by 57.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.7 billion yuan; trust loans increased by 200.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 155.8 billion yuan; undiscounted bank acceptances increased by 301.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 448.7 billion yuan; net corporate bond financing was 1.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.1 billion yuan; net government bond financing was 11.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.28 trillion yuan; and domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 316.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 146.3 billion yuan.

4. [Federal Reserve] Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan recently stated that recent trade tensions have increased uncertainty about the economic growth outlook, making it even more necessary for policymakers to cut interest rates as soon as possible. While he personally prefers a larger rate cut, considering the median forecast of FOMC members, two more rate cuts this year are a realistic expectation.

5. [Eurozone Industrial Output] Eurozone industrial output fell 1.2% month-on-month in August, compared with an expected 1.6% decline and a previous reading of 0.3% growth.

Agricultural and Sideline Products

1. [Sugar] Guangxi issued the "Sugar Industry Development Action Plan (2025-2027)" to promote the restructuring and efficiency improvement of sugar production capacity. Sugar-making enterprises are encouraged to consolidate their internal sugar mills, support joint ventures between enterprises, and guide a number of small sugar mills to transition to producing raw sugar, specialty sugar, and other products, or to develop other businesses.

2. [Soybeans] The U.S. Department of Agriculture's export inspection report shows that U.S. soybean export inspections are near the high end of market expectations, up 27% week-over-week, but down 48% year-over-year. For the week ending October 9, 2025, U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 994,008 tons, compared to a revised 783,495 tons the previous week and 1,907,952 tons in the same period last year.

3. [Soybeans] SECEX data shows that Brazilian soybean exports in early October were significantly higher than the same period last year. From October 1 to 10, Brazilian soybean exports were 2.166 million tons, compared to 4.71 million tons in October last year.

4. [Soybeans] Brazil's National Commodity Supply Corporation (CONAB) released its first 2025/26 survey report, projecting Brazil's total grain production (including soybeans) to reach 354.7 million tons in 2025/26, a 0.8% increase from 2024/25. Brazil's soybean production is projected to reach 177.6 million tons in 2025/26, a 3.6 percentage point increase from 171.5 million tons in 2024/25.

5. [Palm Oil] A customs notice posted on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) website stated that Malaysia has set the export tax on crude palm oil at 10% in November, the same as in October.

6. [Palm Oil] Data from a shipping survey agency showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 12.3% to 16.2% month-on-month from October 1 to 15.

7. [Palm Oil] Data from the South Malaysian Palm Oil Association shows that from October 1 to 10, 2025, the palm oil production in South Malaysia increased by 6.59% month-on-month, of which the fresh fruit bunch yield increased by 6.02% month-on-month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increased by 0.11%.

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