Macroeconomics

1. [PPI] National Bureau of Statistics: In September 2025, the national producer price index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month and remained unchanged month-on-month. The producer purchase price index (PPI) fell by 3.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%. On average from January to September, the PPI fell by 2.8% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 3.2%.

2. [CPI] National Bureau of Statistics: In September 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% year-on-year and rose by 0.1% month-on-month. On average from January to September, the CPI fell by 0.1% year-on-year.

3. [Automobiles] The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) released data showing that in September, automobile production and sales reached 3.276 million and 3.226 million units, respectively, representing month-on-month increases of 16.4% and 12.9%, and year-on-year increases of 17.1% and 14.9%, respectively. For the first time in history, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million units during the same period, with monthly year-on-year growth rates remaining above 10% for five consecutive months.

In September, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%, respectively. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 49.7% of total new vehicle sales. From January to September, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 11.243 million and 11.228 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 35.2% and 34.9%, respectively. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 46.1% of total new vehicle sales.

4. [Federal Reserve] Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that officials may stop shrinking the balance sheet in the coming months, acknowledging "some signs" of tightening in money markets. Powell said the outlook for inflation and employment appears to have changed little since the September FOMC monetary policy meeting, but he emphasized growing signs of slack in the labor market. Powell hinted that even though the government shutdown has severely weakened the Fed's grasp of the economic situation, it is still expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points later this month.

5. [Federal Reserve] Fed Governor Bowman said he continues to expect two more rate cuts before the end of the year.

6. [European Central Bank] ECB President Christine Lagarde: We will never say the ECB is done cutting interest rates. Lagarde recently stated that we cannot declare the rate-cutting cycle over yet and are prepared for any eventuality, as even in the current favorable situation, the situation could still change.

7. [IMF Economic Forecast] The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that global overall inflation will fall from 5.8% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025, and further to 3.7% in 2026. Global economic growth is expected to be 3.2% this year, 0.2 percentage points higher than the July forecast, and 3.1% in 2026, the same as the previous forecast.

Agricultural and Sideline Products

1. [Fats and Oils] According to monitoring by the National Grain and Oils Information Center, domestic commercial inventories of the three major oils and fats reached 2.41 million tons on October 10th, up 10,000 tons from two weeks prior, a month-on-month decrease of 110,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 340,000 tons, and a two-year average increase of 330,000 tons, reaching a recent high.

2. [Soybeans] National Grain and Oils Information Center: As of October 10, major oil mills nationwide held 8.12 million tons of imported soybean inventories, up 420,000 tons from two weeks prior, a 280,000-ton increase from the previous month, a 750,000-ton increase from the previous year, and a 2.89 million-ton increase from the three-year average. Soybean meal inventories stood at 1.07 million tons, down 100,000 tons from two weeks prior, a 80,000-ton decrease from the previous month, a 40,000-ton increase from the previous year, and a 390,000-ton increase from the three-year average.

3. [Sugar] On October 14, Guangxi sugar mills' spot prices were quoted at 5,760-5,770 RMB/ton (sugar mill truck price), down 30 RMB/ton from the 13th. As October approaches, Guangxi sugar mills are nearing the end of their inventory clearance phase. Normally, some sugar mills would begin crushing sugar in late October or early November.

4. [Sugar] According to the European Sugar Industry Report, EU (27) beet sugar production reached 16.6 million tons in the 2024/25 season, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. This was primarily due to a 6.8% year-on-year expansion in planted area to 1.5 million hectares. The UK produced 1.1 million tons of sugar in the 2024/25 crushing season.

5. [Soybean Meal] According to the latest data from the European Commission, as of October 12, EU soybean imports in the 2025/26 season were 3.41 million tons, a 7.3% decrease from the same period last year. Soybean meal imports were 5.09 million tons, unchanged from the same period last year.

6. [Oilseeds] According to the latest data from the Kazakh Ministry of Agriculture, as of October 13, Kazakh grain farmers had harvested 15.1 million hectares of crops, representing 94.1% of the total area, for a yield of 24.6 million tons. In addition, farmers harvested 2.1 million tons of oilseeds.

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