Price trend

As shown in the chart above, copper prices fell slightly last week. Spot copper was quoted at 80,016.67 RMB/ton by the end of the week, down 1.21% from 81,000 RMB/ton at the start of the week, up 8.38% from the beginning of the year, and up 7.02% year-on-year.

Analysis review

Copper weekly change 

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of SunSirs, in the past three months, copper prices fell for 5 weeks and rose for 7 weeks. Copper prices fell slightly last week.

LME copper stocks

According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), LME copper stocks fell slightly. As of the weekend, LME copper stocks were 148,875 tons, down 6.3% from the beginning of the month.

Macroeconomic aspects: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but the market played the game of "buying expectations and selling facts" - Powell's hawkish statement of "risk management-style interest rate cuts" coupled with the unexpected initial jobless claims data pushed the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to rebound strongly, and commodity bulls took profits.

On the supply side: Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that China's refined copper production reached 1.301 million tons in August 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, approaching a historical high, raising market concerns about oversupply. Collaboration among mining companies was also attracting attention. British and American resource groups and Chile's state-owned copper company Codelco announced that they will jointly operate adjacent Chilean copper mining projects. The market interpreted this as a signal of potential future production increases, which to some extent reinforced expectations of loose supply and suppressed prices.

On the demand side, consumption remained sluggish during the "Golden September" peak season. Peak season consumption had yet to fully kick off in mid-to-late September, and downstream demand remained flat. Due to high copper prices, price-sensitive manufacturers and consumers maintained a wait-and-see approach, resulting in sluggish trading.

Market outlook

In summary, the Fed's interest rate cut hasn't triggered the expected easing frenzy, but has instead exposed deep-seated supply-demand imbalances in the metals market. Amidst high copper prices, a wait-and-see attitude will dominate spot consumption, which is unlikely to improve in the short term, exacerbating inventory pressures. Copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term.

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