Since the beginning of this year, the tin price has shown a trend of "surge-high - decline - fluctuate-upward". At the beginning of the year, due to the delay in the resumption of production of the Myanmar Wa State mines, the supply at the mine end has been continuously tight, driving the tin price to surge. In April, the US "reciprocal tariff" policy was implemented beyond expectations, and the Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was phased to resume production, which led to a rapid decline in tin prices. Subsequently, Myanmar resumed production but at a slow pace, and the tight supply of tin mines suppressed the release of the smelting plant's production, and the domestic and foreign tin ingot inventories were reduced to the middle and lower levels, supporting the tin price center to slowly rise. Since the beginning of this year, the Shanghai tin futures price has increased by about 10%, which is stronger than other non-ferrous metal varieties.

Supply-side lack of elasticity and cost shifting

The main contradiction still supports the price of tin

Global tin mine resources are relatively scarce, and the growth rate of production is slow.

Global tin resources are relatively scarce, and supply constraints mainly come from the mineral end, with the global tin mine annual production at a level of 260,000 to 320,000 tons. From a long-term perspective, the grade of tin mines in traditional main producing areas is gradually declining, and at the same time, frequent disruptions in overseas supply and insufficient industry capital expenditure have limited long-term supply increases. USGS data show that in 2023, global tin mine production reached 305,000 tons, with a compound growth rate of 1.95% from 1994 to 2023, overall showing a slow growth trend. Among them, China, Indonesia, Myanmar, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo's tin mine production was 70,000, 69,000, 34,000, 26,000, and 20,000 tons, accounting for 23.3%, 23.0%, 11.3%, 8.7%, and 6.7%, respectively.

Cost increase lifts the price ceiling

ITA data shows that by 2030, the 90th percentile of the global tin mine full cost will rise to $5,397.4/ton. With the decline in the grade of mine resources, the rise in energy costs, and the increase in labor costs, the cost of tin mine extraction continues to rise. ITA data shows that in 2022, the global tin mine full cost at the 50%, 75%, and 90th percentiles was $1,556.2/ton, $2,263.4/ton, and $2,558.1/ton, respectively, significantly higher than the full cost levels in 2010 and 2020. It is expected that by 2030, the full cost of tin mines at the 50%, 75%, and 90th percentiles will continue to rise to $2,215.8/ton, $3,140.8/ton, and $5,397.4/ton. The increase in the cost of tin mine extraction, the strengthening of the tin price, and the high concentration and strong bargaining power of the global tin mine industry provide strong support for the tin price.

The recovery pace of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is relatively slow, which has a limited suppression on tin prices.

From 2012 to 2015, the main mining areas of the Mengxiang mining district in the Wa State of Myanmar focused on the extraction of high-grade surface ore, with the grade of open-pit mines reaching up to 5% to 10%. In 2017, the area fully entered the stage of underground mining. With the continuous large-scale development of Myanmar's tin mines, the grade of local tin mines has now dropped to 1% to 2%, leading to a significant increase in mining costs. According to USGS data, Myanmar's tin mine production has declined from 54,600 tons in 2018 to 47,000 tons in 2023. At the current tin price, the grade of the ore is about 0.8% to break even, and only above 1% will there be a slight profit. Therefore, a higher tin price is needed to stimulate the resumption of production in local mines with lower grades. To ensure the sustainable use of resources, the supply of tin mines is difficult to return to the peak period of 2016-2018.

Customs data show that China's cumulative import volume of refined tin ore from January to July was 72,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.32%. The import volume from Myanmar continues to be sluggish, despite the approval of mining permits, the rainy season hinders the resumption of production, and the land route ban from Thailand prevents the transportation of refined tin ore, making it difficult to improve the short-term supply of refined tin ore. From January to July, the import volume of refined tin ore from Myanmar was 14,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 77.1%. From January to July, the total import volume of tin ore from countries other than Myanmar was 50,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.78%. Although the Congolese (DRC) Bisie mine has resumed production, the full-year production guidance was revised from 20,000 tons to 17,500 tons. In addition, the processing fee for refined tin ore continues to decline, with the processing fee for 40% refined tin ore in Yunnan region falling to 11,000 RMB/ton, and the processing fee for 60% refined tin ore in Jiangxi falling below 8,000 RMB/ton.

The semiconductor cycle rebound continues

Become the main growth driver of tin demand

According to ITA data, tin's global consumption has remained stable in recent years, with a consumption of 3.73 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2%. In the consumption structure of tin, solder still ranks first, accounting for 53%, tin chemical occupies 16%, tinplate occupies 11%, lead-acid batteries occupy 7%, and other occupations occupy 13%. In the downstream applications of tin, solder and chemical fields have a long history of technology, and the commercial application field has shown a stable state. However, in recent years, the booming development of the semiconductor and photovoltaic industries has driven the consumption of tin.

The electronics industry is the most important application direction for solder, including consumer electronics, communication, computers, automotive electronics and other fields. Global semiconductor sales have shown a significant recovery trend since the end of 2023, and global semiconductor sales have turned positive year-on-year, with a sales volume of 599.1 billion RMB in June 2025, an increase of 19.6% year-on-year. With the implementation of AI applications, consumer electronic products are constantly innovating and upgrading, driving the global semiconductor cycle to recover.

Looking ahead, with the trend of rising mining costs due to the decline in resource grades in traditional tin-producing areas, and the limited long-term supply increase due to insufficient industry capital expenditure, the elasticity of future tin supply is expected to remain low. This is still expected to be a strong support for tin prices during the adjustment process, and the semiconductor cycle recovery continues to be the main growth driving force for tin demand.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices; On September 22nd, the benchmark price of tin on SunSirs was 269,330.00 RMB per ton, a decrease of 1.42% compared with the beginning of this month (273,220.00 RMB per ton).

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