According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp have remained stable with small fluctuations and slight decreases recently. On September 11th, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong Province was 5,700 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.58% compared to the average price on September 1st. On September 11th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,166.67 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.4% compared to the average price on September 1st.
On the supply side, the current market supply side is weak. According to data from major producing countries exporting to China, Chile's exports of coniferous pulp to China in July increased by 24.83% month on month, and broad-leaved pulp increased by 52.37% month on month; The export of coniferous pulp from Brazil to China decreased by 56.12% month on month, while the export of broad-leaved pulp increased by 4.88% month on month. Considering that it takes about 2 months for shipping to China, it is expected that the arrival of imported goods at the port in September may slightly increase compared to August. The import volume is currently lacking a strong boost to the pulp market. However, individual new production capacity of domestic pulp is gradually increasing, and the self-sufficiency of domestic wood pulp may further increase, which is not conducive to the price rebound of broad-leaved pulp.
Domestic port inventory: As of September 11, 2025, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.062 million tons, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the previous period's destocking of 0.4 million tons. The inventory level did not change much in this cycle, showing a narrow destocking trend. During this cycle, the inventory of pulp in the mainstream domestic port of Qingdao Port showed a narrow range of accumulation, with a slight increase in the speed of shipment from the port compared to the previous period, and a large quantity of needle pulp in the port; The inventory at Changshu Port shows a trend of destocking, with shipments exceeding 100,000 tons within the week; The inventory of other ports remains within a normal range of fluctuations.
On the demand side: Due to the insufficient volume of terminal demand, downstream raw paper enterprises still face shipping pressure, which hinders their production enthusiasm and makes it difficult to have a significant impact. The expectation of cost reduction in the downstream raw paper industry is relatively clear, and the acceptance of high priced raw materials is relatively limited. Under the dominant rhythm of rigid demand and low price replenishment, it is difficult to effectively increase demand in the pulp market. Although the external quotation remains strong, the improvement in downstream demand is limited, and the upward movement of pulp prices is not satisfactory, resulting in relatively weak market price performance.
In terms of futures: Recently, pulp futures prices have fallen more or risen less. As of September 11th, the opening price of the main contract sp2511 for pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 4,996 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,016 RMB/ton, the highest price was 5,022 RMB/ton, the trading volume was 253,500 lots, and the position held was 190,457 lots.
SunSirs wood pulp analyst believes that although the traditional market peak season is approaching, the upward momentum of wood pulp prices is weak against the backdrop of relatively loose supply and poor demand expectations. Although overseas pulp mills are actively raising prices, it will still take time for domestic demand to rebound, and it is expected that the short-term price of wood pulp will remain within a range of fluctuations and adjustments.
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