Trend Analysis:

As shown in the chart above, copper prices rose initially before declining last week. By the end of the week, spot copper was quoted at 80,035 RMB/ton, up 0.05% from 79,993.33 RMB/ton at the start of the week. Prices are up 8.4% year-to-date and 11.08% year-on-year.

LME Copper Inventories

Data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) indicates a slight decline in LME copper inventories. As of the weekend, LME copper stocks stood at 158,375 tons, down 0.31% from the beginning of the month.

Macroeconomic Outlook:

Market participants anticipate two more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with some traders betting on a potential third cut in early 2026. The Fed's dovish stance continues to pressure the dollar, making it the weakest major currency in 2025 with a year-to-date decline of nearly 10%. This significantly boosts the appeal of dollar-denominated industrial commodities. However, increased political interference from Trump is heightening market sentiment pressures. His calls for a sharp rate cut to 1% and attempts to remove Governor Cook have sparked renewed concerns about the Fed's independence.

Supply Side:

Ongoing disruptions at overseas mines (e.g., community conflicts in Peru and the Democratic Republic of Congo), coupled with a renewed decline in domestic spot treatment charges (TC) (July average TC fell below -$35/dry metric ton), highlight tight supply conditions. Smelters are facing widening losses and high costs, prompting production cut plans. Refined copper output is expected to decline in September.

Demand Side: The traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” has arrived. Domestic copper processing utilization rates show signs of recovery, while accelerated implementation of real estate and infrastructure projects boosts demand resilience.

In summary: Amid recent upward pressure on copper prices and elevated premiums, end-users remain cautious about high prices, leading to sluggish procurement. Buyers and sellers are locked in a tug-of-war over pricing, suppressing market trading activity. However, expectations for the “Golden September and Silver October” season persist, overseas mining disruptions continue, and domestic spot processing fees remain negative and volatile, confirming the reality of tight supply. Copper prices are expected to trend sideways with a slight upward bias.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on September 8, the benchmark copper price of SunSirs was 80,035.00 RMB/ton, up 0.80% from the beginning of this month (79,401.67 RMB/ton).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.