Price trend

Aluminum prices have been fluctuating sideways recently, with slight fluctuations in August. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of August 31, 2025, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 20,746.67 RMB/ton, up 0.73% from the average price of 20,596.67 RMB/ton on August 1.

The aluminum price forecast in September

Aluminum prices may be volatile in September. This is mainly due to the lack of momentum for sustained and substantial price increases in the medium to long term, given relatively stable or growing supply, slow demand growth, and significant macroeconomic uncertainty. Specific factors are as follows:

Macroeconomics: Although the U.S. economic data performed well, the global economy still faces many uncertainties, such as the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path and geopolitical tensions. These factors may have a certain impact on aluminum prices.

Fundamentals:

Positive short-term macroeconomic factors: The upward revision of US second-quarter GDP data, significant growth in business investment, and a resilient consumer market provided macroeconomic support for aluminum prices. Furthermore, positive macroeconomic sentiment, with investor optimism outweighing concerns about the uncertainty surrounding the path of interest rate cuts, could lead to capital inflows into the market, potentially driving aluminum prices higher.

On the supply side: Maintenance at some alumina plants, such as a refinery in Guizhou, has resulted in a short-term reduction in supply, providing some support for aluminum prices.

Cost support: While costs, such as alumina, have fluctuated, they have generally provided some support for aluminum prices, limiting their downward potential.

Constraints:

Demand: Domestic downstream aluminum production capacity utilization rates have rebounded slightly, but consumption growth has been limited. For example, demand growth in sectors like construction, automotive, and photovoltaic profiles has been weak, particularly in the photovoltaic industry. This has constrained aluminum price increases.

Inventory factors: The social inventory of aluminum and the LME aluminum ingot inventory were showing an upward trend, and the inventory pressure was increasing, which to a certain extent suppressed the rapid rise in aluminum prices.

Conclusion:

In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to receive more support due to macroeconomic factors and are expected to show a volatile and stronger trend, but the increase will be limited due to constraints on demand and inventory factors.

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