Price trend

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, domestic polyester staple fiber prices fluctuated in August. As of August 31, the average domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) market price was 6,536 RMB/ton, down 0.61% from the beginning of the month. In August, polyester staple fiber prices followed cost fluctuations, initially falling, then rising, and finally falling back.

Analysis review

The crude oil market faced a complex landscape in the short term, with mixed bullish and bearish factors. On the supply side, geopolitical risks between Russia and Ukraine intensified due to Trump's deadline for negotiations, raising concerns about supply disruptions. On the demand side, declines in US crude oil inventories, including those at Cushing, and increases in Strategic Petroleum Reserves, are supporting prices. However, the implementation of US tariffs on Indian purchases of Russian crude oil may pose a hurdle. As of August 26, the October WTI crude oil futures contract settled at $63.25 per barrel, while the October Brent crude oil futures contract settled at $67.22 per barrel. Market activity remained focused on developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation and the policy guidance from the OPEC meeting on September 7.

The domestic PTA market rebounded after a decline. As of August 29th, the average PTA market price in East China was 4,891 RMB/ton, up 1.45% from the beginning of the month. In the first half of the month, OPEC+ production increases and continued declines in crude oil prices weighed on market prices due to expectations of inventory accumulation. In the second half of the month, the petrochemical industry's internal circulation and unplanned losses in PTA plants led to a sharp rise in market prices. At the end of the month, concerns about weakening supply and demand caused market prices to fall from their highs. Regarding PTA supply, some factories were undergoing maintenance, and the industry's operating rate was around 68%, but market supply was stable and there was no shortage of goods. In early September, three PTA plants with capacities of 2.25 million tons, 2.2 million tons, and 4.5 million tons will be restarted, shifting the industry's supply and demand from destocking to a more balanced balance.

On the demand side, the downstream weaving industry had entered its traditional off-season, resulting in weak end-user textile and apparel consumption and slow upward transmission of positive trends. Consequently, polyester staple fiber purchases were primarily on-demand, with little incentive for large-scale stockpiling. Furthermore, ongoing tariff disputes were impacting end-user textile and apparel exports. Whether the peak season in September will commence as scheduled and boost the staple fiber market remained to be seen. If there is no substantial improvement in end-user demand in September and weaving companies' order growth falls short of expectations, the "peak season" market for staple fibers may be difficult to materialize, and the market is likely to remain weak.

Market outlook

Analysts at SunSirs believe that with the return of PTA supply from maintenance plants in September, while the maintenance remains uncertain, supply pressure may increase. Downstream markets anticipate the traditional peak season in September to provide a boost to the market. However, in the absence of clear guidance, polyester staple fiber prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.