Macro
1. [Automobiles] According to preliminary estimates by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide reached 1.18 million units in July, a year-on-year increase of 25% and a month-on-month decrease of 4%. Cumulative wholesale sales from January to July reached 7.63 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35%.
2. [Federal Reserve] Fed Chairwoman Mary Daly stated that the time for an interest rate cut is approaching, and two 25 basis point rate cuts this year still appear to be an appropriate readjustment. The key is whether interest rates are cut in both September and December, not whether they occur at all.
3. [US-EU Tariffs] On the 4th, a spokesperson for the European Commission stated that the EU will suspend the implementation of tariff countermeasures against the United States, originally scheduled to take effect on August 7, for six months. The EU will continue to work with the United States to finalize a joint statement on trade.
4. [US Manufacturing New Orders] Data released by the U.S. Census Bureau of the Commerce Department showed that new orders for US manufacturing fell sharply by 4.8% month-over-month in June, dragged down by a sharp drop in commercial aircraft orders, compared with an 8.2% increase in the previous month.
Energy
1. [Crude Oil] On August 4, international crude oil futures closed lower. The September contract for U.S. WTI crude oil futures settled at $66.29 per barrel, down $1.04, or 1.5%. The October contract for Brent crude oil futures settled at $68.76 per barrel, down $0.91, or 1.3%. OPEC's significant production increase in September has intensified market concerns about supply.
2. [Crude Oil] The total number of oil rigs in the United States for the week ending August 1 was 410, compared with 415 in the previous week.
3. [Crude Oil] Goldman Sachs maintained its forecast for an average Brent price of $64 per barrel in the fourth quarter and expects it to fall to $56 per barrel in 2026.
4. [Crude Oil] Diamondback Energy, one of the largest independent oil companies in the US Permian Basin, warned that a significant influx of crude oil supply will occur in the global market in the coming months. The company will cut capital expenditures by $100 million, lower its production guidance, and postpone some fracturing operations.
5. [Coking Coal] On August 4th, coking coal prices in the Jinzhong market rose by 50 RMB/ton. The ex-factory price for medium-sulfur coking coal (A10.5, S1.3, V25, G80, CSR65, and lithofacies 0.15) was 1,250 RMB/ton, including tax.
Chemicals
1. [Fluorite] On August 2nd, Tongzheng Mining officially launched its first mining operation at the Chagandele fluorite mine in the Central Gobi Province of Mongolia. Located in the core fluorite mineralization belt of Gulesaihan Sumu, the mine will initially utilize open-pit mining with a planned annual production capacity of 200,000 tons. Subsequently, it will transition to underground mining in an orderly manner.
2. [Ethylene Glycol] Changes in domestic ethylene glycol plants in early August 2025: Far East United's 500,000-ton plant continues to increase its load;
One line of Zhejiang Petrochemical's Phase II 1.6 million-ton plant is expected to restart in early August;
Satellite Petrochemical's restart has been postponed until after September;
Tongliao Jinmei's 300,000-ton plant was shut down for a malfunction at the end of July and is expected to resume operations within a week;
Xinjiang Tianying's 150,000-ton plant remains shut down and is expected to resume operations after mid-August;
Shanxi Woneng's 300,000-ton plant is scheduled for maintenance in early August and will resume operations at the end of the month;
Shanxi Meijin's 300,000-ton plant is operating at a reduced load;
Shenhua Yulin's 400,000-ton plant is operating at a very low load and is expected to resume operations appropriately in early August;
Xinjiang Guanghui's 400,000-ton plant has restarted and is expected to begin production in mid-August;
Inner Mongolia Zhonghua's 300,000-ton plant has restarted and commenced production.
3. [Benzene] As of August 4, 2025, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu ports was 163,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous period's inventory of 170,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.12%; an increase of 128,000 tons from the same period last year's inventory of 35,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 365.71%.
4. [Diethylene Glycol] From August 1 to 3, Zhangjiagang's two warehouses shipped a total of 2,574 tons, with an average daily shipment of 858 tons on weekends. As of now, the inventory at the two warehouses is 28,200 tons.
5. [Aniline] On August 5, Jiangsu Fuqiang's 100,000-ton/year plant operated normally. The price of aniline was reduced by 100 RMB to 7,800 RMB/ton in cash and 7,880 RMB/ton in acceptance. Please discuss the actual order details.
6. [Bisphenol A] On August 4, Changchun Chemical's bisphenol A price was 8,200 RMB/ton. The product is mainly supplied to downstream epoxy resin-grade long-term contract customers, with a small amount exported. Changchun Chemical's 405,000 tons/year bisphenol A unit has been operating at approximately 60% capacity due to delays in raw material shipping due to typhoons. Both lines are scheduled for 45 days of maintenance in October and November. Details are pending.
7. [MDI] It is understood that a northern manufacturer's distribution channel offered a fixed price of 16,500 RMB/ton for poly MDI in early August, leading to tight supply.
Rubber and Plastics
1. [ABS] Yulong Petrochemical's Phase I ABS unit has a total capacity of 600,000 tons/year. Its capacity has recently increased to over 80%, and Phase II is expected to be operational by the end of the year.
2. [Butadiene Rubber] Sichuan Petrochemical's 150,000 tons/year high-yield butadiene rubber unit plans to produce approximately 9,150 tons in August 2025, a decrease of approximately 5,000 tons from July.
3. [Natural Rubber] On August 4th, the natural rubber market in Qingdao was weak and consolidating. The current mainstream price in Qingdao for 23-year-old Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao full latex is 14,200-14,550 RMB/ton; the mainstream price in Qingdao for 24-year-old Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao full latex is 14,400-14,750 RMB/ton; the mainstream price for Vietnamese 3L is 14,650-14,800 RMB/ton.
4. [Natural Rubber] On August 4th, the market price of natural rubber raw materials in Thailand fell: tobacco sheets were quoted at 60.75 baht/kg, down 0.50 baht/kg; glue was stable at 54.00 baht/kg; and cup rubber was quoted at 51.50 baht/kg, down 0.50 baht/kg.
Textiles
1. [Textiles] As of July 31st, the operating capacity of textile mills in mainstream regions was 66.6%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.48%.
2. [PTA] Jiaxing Petrochemical's total PTA production capacity is 3.7 million tons/year, of which Unit 2, a 2.2 million ton unit, was shut down on August 1st.
Ningbo Formosa Petrochemical's 1.2 million ton PTA unit was shut down on June 10th; another 1.5 million ton PTA unit was shut down on July 31st and restarted last weekend.
Yizheng Chemical Fiber's 3 million ton PTA unit was reduced on July 31st and resumed operation last weekend.
3. [Acrylonitrile] On August 4th, it was reported that Jilin Petrochemical's 260,000 ton expansion unit for acrylonitrile had commenced production.
It was reported that a 130,000 ton acrylonitrile production line at Sinochem Quanzhou was shut down.
4. [Acrylonitrile] On August 4th, Sinopec North China Sales Company raised the listed price of acrylonitrile by 100 RMB/ton to 8,350 RMB/ton.
5. [Polyester Staple Fiber] On August 4th, Zhejiang Hengyi Petrochemical's polyester staple fiber prices remained stable. The price of semi-matte 1.56*38 cotton staple fiber from Hengyi High-Tech, Hengming Chemical Fiber, Suqian Yida, and Fujian Yijin was 6,800 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.
6. [Lint Cotton] According to data from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, as of July 31st, the national processing rate was 100%, unchanged year-on-year and in line with the average of the past four years. The national sales rate was 97.1%, up 7.3 percentage points year-on-year and 8.3 percentage points from the average of the past four years.
7. [Lint Cotton] According to statistics, as of July 31st, imported cotton inventories at major ports decreased by 5.07% week-on-week, reaching a total of 335,400 tons. Inventories continued to decline during the week. Imported cotton inventories at Qingdao and Jinan ports and surrounding warehouses in Shandong Province were approximately 271,000 tons, a 5.90% week-on-week decrease and a 39.64% year-on-year decrease. Imported cotton inventories at Zhangjiagang Port and surrounding warehouses in Jiangsu Province were approximately 35,600 tons, while inventories at other ports were approximately 28,800 tons.
8. [Lint Cotton] The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its weekly crop progress report early Tuesday morning, showing that as of the week of August 3rd, the quality-to-good rate of U.S. cotton was 55%, compared to 55% the previous week and 45% the same period last year. The boll set rate was 55%, compared to 44% the previous week and 59% the same period last year, with a five-year average of 58%. The full boll rate was 5%, compared to 7% the same period last year, with a five-year average of 6%. The bud-forming rate was 87%, compared to 80% the previous week and 90% the same period last year, with a five-year average of 89%.
Steel
1. [Hot-rolled Coil] On the morning of August 4th, Guangdong Southern Donghai Steel Co., Ltd. successfully fired up its electric furnace, officially launching its 1450mm hot-rolled coil production line. The finished hot-rolled coils range in thickness from 1.2 to 19mm and in width from 700 to 1300mm, with an annual production capacity of 4 million tons.
2. [Steel] Shagang plans to overhaul a 500m³ blast furnace in September. The maintenance is expected to last four months, impacting 2,000 tons of molten iron production per day.
3. [Galvanized Sheet] On August 4th, 154 galvanizing companies nationwide traded a total of 16,446 tons, an increase of 1,179 tons, or 7.72%, compared to the previous trading day. The largest increase was in the southwest region, where sales increased by 660 tons, or 19.63%.
4. [Steel] As of August 1, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points month-on-month and an increase of 1.37 percentage points year-on-year. The average daily molten iron output was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons month-on-month and an increase of 40,900 tons year-on-year.
5. [Steel] It is understood that the national average daily trading volume of construction steel in July was 102,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.83% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.24%.
6. [Steel Billets] In July, Mysteel statistics showed that the total inventory of sample steel billet distributors nationwide was approximately 3.32 million tons, an increase of approximately 4% month-on-month and approximately 29% year-on-year. At the beginning of August, some steel mills completed blast furnace maintenance, resulting in increased resumption of production. Furthermore, current billet profits are relatively good, which in turn has led to an increase in billet supply, which is expected to remain at a relatively high level of around 44,000 tons per day.
7. [Ferrosilicon] In August, a steel mill in Jiangsu Province tendered ferrosilicon at 6,020 RMB/ton for a quantity of 500 tons, with electronic receipts.
On August 4, a steel mill in Anhui Province tendered ferrosilicon at 5,900 RMB/ton for a quantity of 750 tons, with acceptance tax included upon delivery to the factory.
Nonferrous Metals
1. [Alumina] Xinjiang Zhonghe stated that its 2.4 million tons per year alumina project is expected to be completed and operational in the first half of 2026. The company currently has an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 180,000 tons, and its future alumina products will primarily be sold to other electrolytic aluminum companies.
2. [Gold] Citigroup raised its gold price forecast for the next 0-3 months to $3,500/ounce, from $3,300/ounce previously. It also raised its gold price forecast for the next three months to $3,300-3,600/ounce, from the previous range of $3,100-3,500/ounce. 3. [Aluminum] According to data from the U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA), in July (the first full month since Trump doubled import tariffs on raw aluminum), the United States imported a total of 171,132 tons of unwrought aluminum, down from 286,303 tons in June, a 40% decrease from the previous month. According to import monitoring data, the average U.S. import volume in the first half of 2025 is 304,236 tons. Imports primarily come from Canada, which accounts for 70% of total imports in the first half of the year.
4. [Aluminum] According to data released by the Guinean Geological Service, AMCG Mining's Koumbia mine in the Boke mining area of Australia shipped two cargoes of bauxite from the port of Dapilon between July 21 and 27, totaling 349,973 tons. This was the first shipment since its completion. The Koumbia mine has proven reserves of 625 million tons and inferred future reserves of 1.551 billion tons.
Building Materials
1. [Waste Paper] On August 4th, Henry Paper Industry in Xinxiang, Henan Province, increased its waste paper purchase price by 30 RMB/ton, bringing the adjusted ex-factory price to 1,620 RMB/ton.
Shanying Paper Industry in Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province, increased its waste paper purchase price by 20 RMB/ton, bringing the adjusted ex-factory price without invoice to 1,720 RMB/ton.
Jingxing Paper Industry in Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province, increased its waste paper purchase price by 20 RMB/ton, bringing the adjusted ex-factory price without invoice to 1,640 RMB/ton.
Huayu Paper Industry in Shaoxing, Zhejiang Province, increased its waste paper purchase price by 10 RMB/ton, bringing the adjusted ex-factory price without invoice to 1,550 RMB/ton.
Agricultural and Sideline Products
1. [Soybean Meal] National Grain and Oil Information Center: Market news indicates that Chinese traders recently purchased another 30,000 tons of Argentine soybean meal. It is understood that the CNF transaction price for this batch of soybean meal was US$345/ton, with a shipment date in September. This is the third shipload of Argentine soybean meal purchased recently by China, bringing the total to 90,000 tons.
2. [Soybean Oil] The USDA's monthly crushing report shows that as of June 30, U.S. soybean oil stocks were 1.895 billion pounds, up 1.01% from 1.876 billion pounds at the end of May, but down 10.82% from 2.125 billion pounds at the end of June 2024.
3. [Rapeseed] The USDA's monthly crushing data shows that U.S. rapeseed crushing volume in June 2025 was 166,486 tons, a 54.38% surge from 107,840 tons in May 2025, but still down 15.43% from 196,864 tons in the same period last year.
4. [Rapeseed] The European Commission's latest forecast suggests that the EU rapeseed harvest in 2025 may be lower than previously expected. While still higher than last year's disappointing output, it will not meet domestic demand. The European Commission forecasts the EU rapeseed harvest for this year to be approximately 18.5 million tons, down 385,000 tons from its June forecast, but still nearly 1.9 million tons higher than the 2024 harvest.
5. [Soybean] Statistics show that as of August 1, the total soybean shipments scheduled for shipment from Brazilian ports to China amounted to 4.812 million tons, a decrease of 544,000 tons from the previous week. Regarding shipments, as of August 1, the total shipments from Brazilian ports to China since July amounted to 9.778 million tons, an increase of 1.807 million tons from the previous week.
6. [Grain] The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture stated that as of July 31, Ukraine had harvested 4.424 million hectares of grain (including legumes), representing 39% of the planned area, yielding 15.474 million tons, with an average yield of 3.5 tons per hectare.
7. [Wheat] Data released by Statistics Canada show that Canadian wheat and rapeseed exports slowed in week 51 of the 2024/25 marketing year, but cumulative exports for the current year were both higher than the previous year. Canada's canola exports reached 60,000 tons in the week ending July 27, 2025, compared to 200,000 tons the previous week. Total exports for the 2024/25 marketing year to date are 9.49 million tons, up 39.2% year-on-year and 40.9% year-on-year last week.
8. [Palm Oil] Data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Pressers Association (SPPOMA) show that from July 1 to 31, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 7.19% month-on-month, while oil extraction decreased by 0.02% and production increased by 7.07% month-on-month.
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