Stability at the beginning of the week, and a slight decline in the later period. The trading in the market is general. Under the game of supply and demand, inventory is accumulated, and some companies have slightly reduced prices to reduce inventory. According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of June 18, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2,150 RMB/ton, a weekly decline of 1.15%, and a year-on-year decline of 8.32%.

Analysis of influencing factors

Supply side: loose, some companies reduce their burden

Device dynamics: The overall operation of the industry is about 80%, and the supply is relatively stable. At present, some companies maintain reduced load operation, among which Shandong Luxi is operating at low load, and Jiujiang Jiuhong is operating at half load.

Inventory pressure is evident: some manufacturers have accumulated inventory, and the willingness to reduce prices to reduce inventory has increased.

Cost side: methanol soared, liquid chlorine weakened

Methanol: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East escalate. There are reports that most Iranian methanol plants have stopped working. The arrival of goods at ports in the later period may be greatly affected. Methanol prices have risen strongly. As of June 18, the spot price of methanol in SunSirs was 2,674 RMB/ton, up 14.71% during the week. Cost support has increased, but weak demand has limited price transmission.

Liquid chlorine: Shandong liquid chlorine prices fell slightly, partially offsetting the impact of methanol price increases.

Demand side: Mainly rigid demand, refrigerants may have support

As an important organic solvent and chemical raw material, dichloromethane is widely used in refrigerants, pharmaceuticals, coatings, adhesives, electronic cleaning and other fields, and is mainly purchased for rigid demand. June is usually the traditional off-season for the chemical industry. Some downstream companies may have weak demand due to the decline in the operating rate of high temperatures, rainy seasons or environmental protection inspections. In some regions (such as East China and South China), demand in the construction, coatings and other industries may slow down due to the influence of plum rain weather.

The consumer market structure of refrigerant R32 is 40% export + 40% household air conditioner production + 20% industrial, commercial and agricultural refrigeration + household, industrial, commercial and agricultural heating + maintenance market. The third quarter is a relatively peak season for the maintenance + export market, and it is expected to maintain a good upward trend. If demand increases significantly in the second half of the year, refrigeration companies will apply for an increase in R32 production quotas in August, which may boost dichloromethane demand.

Outlook for the future

The game between supply and demand continues, and the contradiction between cost and demand is prominent. Dichloromethane will fluctuate in the short term. If inventory pressure increases, prices may continue to fall slightly; if methanol continues to rise, companies may support prices.

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