Recent macro disturbances have continued, and fundamental drivers are limited. Domestic and foreign cotton prices have maintained a weak trend. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of June 3, the spot price of 3128B grade lint was 14,558 RMB/ton, down 0.15% from before the holiday and 0.27% from the previous week.

Domestic:

Supply: Last week, the spot price of cotton remained basically stable, and the pace of destocking of finished products by textile enterprises was slightly slow, and cotton raw materials were purchased as needed. The commercial inventory of cotton decreased month-on-month and is currently at a low level in recent years. The inventory of raw materials of textile enterprises remained stable, the inventory reserves of raw materials of weaving mills decreased, and the inventory of finished products accumulated. As of May 30, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton was 3.3379 million tons, a decrease of 156,600 tons from the previous week.

The sowing of new cotton in Xinjiang, my country has ended and is in the stage of budding. According to survey data from multiple institutions, the sowing area of ​​new cotton in China this year may increase slightly year-on-year. The main reason is that the returns of economic crops such as tomatoes sown in the previous year were poor, the willingness to switch to cotton has increased, and the weather disturbance is limited. This year, my country's cotton is still likely to have a bumper harvest.

Demand: With the continued off-season, the demand side continues to be weak, and the start-up rate is slowly declining. As of May 29, the start-up load of textile enterprises in mainstream regions was 74.3%, a decrease of 0.27% month-on-month. Yarn mill orders remain flat, finished product inventories continue to accumulate, and the start-up rate in the subsequent off-season may further decline.

International:

The recent market focus is still more on the macro level. The US tariff policy continues to repeat, making it difficult to predict the subsequent trend. The confusing changes in tariff policies have exacerbated the instability of the economy and finance. From a fundamental perspective, the current US new cotton is still in the stage of sowing. Judging from the current data, the progress of US cotton sowing is slightly slower than the same period last year, but the gap is limited, and the sowing progress has little impact. Although the cotton planting area in the United States is expected to decline significantly year-on-year this year, the final output is expected to be limited due to the gradual decline in the proportion of drought-affected areas in the United States this year.

Market Forecast: Overall, the fundamentals of the domestic market have not changed much, the growth of new cotton is relatively smooth, and the weather has not yet given obvious room for speculation. Demand is weak, and the subsequent off-season continues, and the start-up of yarn mills and cloth mills may further decline, dragging down cotton prices.

The short-term driving force is insufficient, and the cotton price range is expected to be slightly weak and volatile.

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